Ed. Note: While MLB teams, fans, and fantasy baseball players are keenly interested in getting their grubby paws on the next Hideki Okajima, player movement from Japanese clubs to MLB is somewhat of a touchy issue for fans of Nippon Pro Baseball. Some journalists that cover NPB spit, scowl, and become venomous when you ask them who the next players to make the trip to the states will be.

While the majority of fans in Asia love to see their country’s players competing on the big stage of MLB and see it as a source of national pride, some NPB fans–especially older, nationalistic types–bitterly complain that the NPB is evolving into a de facto farm system for MLB, and point out that the mining of the league’s talent is leading to diminishing attendance and possibly threatening the existence of the league itself. These arguments often fail to take into account NPB’s abysmally poor marketing (no website like MLB.com?) , and the disproportionate amount of influence the Yomiuri Giants have on the league’s financial operations. (For a comprehensive and detailed explanation of all of this and the current financial and spiritual state of Japanese baseball, click here).

Not all NPB players want to play in MLB even if they are unrestricted free agents. Some stay out of a sense of obligation to their parent clubs, an anachronism for fans in of MLB who are used to a more mercenary free agency market with fewer restrictions. Other players feel it’s not worth the gamble when they enjoy superstar status in Japan, especially since most free agents are already in their early to mid-30’s when it’s time to make the trip overseas. Nobody wants to be the next Hideki Irabu. Now with that out of the way….

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Our first installment focuses upon two hitters likely to wind up in MLB jerseys: Chunichi Dragons OF Kosuke Fukudome, who should have an immediate impact in the MLB next year, and Yakult Swallows OF Norichika Aoki, who is a ways away from MLB but a definite player to keep your eye on as he rips up NPB pitching.

Kosuke Fukudome, OF Chunichi Dragons. Bats L, throws R. 188 lb. age: 30

Fukudome, whose name could and should inspire countless fantasy team names, is a 5-tool OF for the Chunichi Dragons and at this a virtual guarantee to make the leap to the majors. He recently completed successful endoscopic elbow surgery to clear up bone fragments in his elbow, and should be ready for the start of the 2008 season.

Fukudome won the Central League MVP and Batting Title in 2006, with a studly line of .351/.438/.653, and has won 3 gold gloves to boot. According to Michael Westbay of japanesebaseball.com, Fukudome had quite a bit of trouble this season in his contract negotiations with the Chunichi front office, stemming from the fact that he is a vocal representative of the players, and has had trouble getting straight answers from the team about salary decisions. Fukudome has more or less declared he’s had it with the situation, which the media has interpreted as a declaration that he’s ready to head for MLB. His 2005-2006 stat line looks like this.

Year AB R H RBI HR SB AVG OBP SLG
2005 515 102 169 103 28 13 .328 .430 .569
2006 496 117 174 104 31 11 .351 .438 .653

Until his recent surgery this September, he’s was at a .290/.450/.520 clip, with 13 HRs in 269 AB’s. Assuming he’s healthy, sources project he’ll be worth around 10 million to an MLB team, but this seems a bit exaggerated due to his injury and the the possibility that his power numbers might not translate very well in the show, at least for quite some time. A more realistic projection suggests numbers similar to the 2007 1st half version of Bob Abreu. Expect decent production as a third outfielder fantasy wise, and add a bit of fantasy value if your league counts outfield assists as a category. I hope it doesn’t, really.

Keep an eye on:

Norichika Aoki, CF, Yakult Swallows. Bats: L, throws R. 5’9, 170. Age: 24

Let’s see, does this sound familiar? A pesky, battling contact hitter with increasing power numbers and lightning speed up the line to beat out infield hits? The 24-year-old Aoki holds the Central League record for base hits in a season (202), and became only the second hitter in NPB history with 200 hits in a season, the other of course being this one guy on the Mariners we hear about from time to time. In 2006, Aoki led the league in hits and stolen bases, and has expressed a desire to play in the majors in various interviews. His 2005-6 campaigns yielded:

Year AB R H RBI HR SB AVG OBP SLG
2005 588 100 202 28 3 29 .343 .390* .420
2006 599 112 192 62 13 41 .321 .400* .440

So far in 2007, Aoki’s performance has been even more enticing to MLB observers, due to an increase in power numbers and slugging. He currently boasts a mouth-watering line of .345/.427/.509, and has started hitting for power, jacking 18 home to add to his 96 runs and 14 steals far this season. Unfortunately for all of you fantasy geeks rushing to add him to your watch lists, Aoki still has 4 years left of service to the Swallows before he’s likely to be posted. But for those of you planning your 2011 sleeper list, here’s your guy. He’s currently considered the best hitter in Japanese baseball, so when you see this name pay attention.

Our next post on NPB’s prospects will cover some of the pitchers most likely to make the jump in 2008 (or beyond): Koji Uehara, Hitoki Iwase, Kiyoshi Toyoda, Masahide Kobayashi, Yu Darvish, and Kazumi Saitoh.