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Vegas Watch, a blog dedicated to sports gaming, has a post about the current HR title odds. As the writer says, handicapping this sort of thing is incredibly tough. You can find the oddmaker’s list here and then the writer has his own choices, which are at least in part arrived at via PECOTA projecton. He likes Ryan Braun who’s got good value at 15-1. His second choice? A shocker, but not the worst pick given the odds:

Rick Ankiel
Odds: 300-1
PECOTA homers: 30, 13th in MLB

Yes, seriously. PECOTA is very bullish on Ankiel- other projections don’t have him nearly as high. Will he lead the majors in HRs? No, probably not. But it’s important to remember how good these odds are. Betting $20 would net you $6000. And hey, stranger things have happened.

Personally I’d have to say Adam Dunn at 18-1 isn’t a bad play. Carlos Pena, which the writer also mentions as a good value at 50-1, isn’t out of the question either.