It’s a bit early to talk about this already, but this year I’ve been finding the NBA so tedious and after reviewing the results of an experts draft recently, I got that giddy, baseball’s-a-comin’ feeling and coughed up a list of 21 players that seemed to slip a bit lower than they should have. I’ve listed their draft position in the draft along with a comment or two. Not all of these players qualify as sleepers per se–you can’t exactly call Wang a ’sleeper’ pick– but most of them shared the common trait of being drafted too late in the above draft. What say ye, EWC readers?
- Wang Chien Ming (Rd 17): I’ve been a stern critic, but surely a dude who wins 19 twice in a row, once after starting the year on the DL, gets drafted before the 17th round!? After A.J. Pierzynski? After Matsui Kazuo?
- Chris Young the OF (Round 8.): He should go higher than round 8. 32 HR in his rookie year, he can run and he’ll unquestionably drive in more runs. He’s got all five tools, I definitely take him before Jeff Francoeur based on the speed.
- Fausto Carmona (Rd 9): Think he went a round too late, last year was no fluke he’s got it.
- Ryan Zimmerman (Rd 9): Don’t think he’ll outdo David Wright as some suggest, but he’ll be good value at 3B.
- Lincecum (Round 10): Are you kidding me? I don’t care if he pitches for a 40+ park and rec. team, he’s nasty. He’ll go earlier than this as the season gets closer.
- Liriano (Round 10): All things point to a healthy return and his stuff was compared favorably to Santana’s by scouts and team members. If he brings that nasty slider back he’s #1 SP talent in a middle round.
- Brad Penny (Round 12) :Penny just can’t seem to buy any respect from the fantasy community, the real world says he’s a starter that will again come as undervalued.
- James Loney (Round 11): Actually 11th is about right, but keep him on your radar. He’s got the stroke power will come.
- Placido Polanco (Round 13): Consistently underrated base hit machine, low K’s, scores runs in bunches.
- Ian Snell (Round 14): Should be consistent source of K’s and still young, might take off one year after everyone anticipated. Showed streaks of excellent pitching last year.
- Jacoby Ellsbury (Round 14): Knows how to get on base, can steal bases, power still developing. you should celebrate endlessly if he lasts this long in the draft and ends up on your roster.
- Raul Ibanez (Round 14): Like Penny always criminally undervalued, carried my team in playoffs last year after Aaron cut him. (Thanks, Aaron.)
- Joba Chamberlain (Round 14): Such nasty stuff, Rivera isn’t the dominant force he once was, and who knows what his role might emerge as. He’ll get lots of K’s and good numbers whatever it is.
- Sheffield (round 16): Why not take a chance if its round 15 and he’s still on the board? He’s always provided teams with better value than his draft positions over the last few years.
- Phil Hughes (Round 16): Ace type stuff, might still be a year or two away from glory but like Liriano and Lincecum, could provide massive value for roto players willing to gamble a bit. All 3 will be a good source of K’s and have breakout potential.
- Tom Gorzelanny (Round 18): He’s still young and hasn’t been half bad his first few seasons. Here’s to thinking it gets better this year, and I think he should go at least a couple rounds earlier, certainly before Dontrelle.
- Justin Upton (Round 19): You have to be happy for a family that has not one but two young men not only playing in MLB, but both with legitimate All-Star potential. And How did he fall to rd. 19 in an experts draft? Why draft J.D. Drew in front of him? Big time upside. In keeper leagues bump his value up.
- Evan Longoria (Round 20): Still young and a gamble, but he can mash (he’s built like a post-spinach consumption popeye) and has a powerful swing and good bat speed.
- Andrew Miller (Round 22): Young, nasty stuff, should give excellent value if he drops this low in your draft.
- Rafael Betancourt (Round 23): People seem to have already forgotten that Betancourt was a huge reason for the Indians’ success last year and put up sickly good numbers, even earning mention as a Cy candidate. And guess what, Joe Borowski is behind him. If your league counts holds–and gol darnit it should, he should go 10 rounds earlier.
- Scott Baker (Round 23): The Twins were out of the running when Baker started flashing consistently above average stuff and pitching superb games towards the end of last season. If he’s around this late you’ve got yourself a nice 4/5 starter for far less than he should go for.
13 responses so far ↓
1 Simon Currie // Jan 20, 2008 at 1:23 am
very useful list!
i’m busy skiing all feb. so my fantasy prep will have to take place in a couple of weeks in march…
2 Shinsano // Jan 20, 2008 at 12:10 pm
It’s interesting you’ve elevated Tim, Francisco and Gary to Dylan-like status. Anything we should read into that? Chris Young is Round smiley face is thought provoking as well.
Maybe I’m still sore from that Ibanez thing. He drove me nuts last year in two leagues.
I agree on Longoria. As opposed to teammate LaRoche, who I think the jury is still out on even though he’s great in the minors, I think he might step right in and be solid. I think Andrew Miller could lose 15 games for Florida this year though.
3 Jackson // Jan 20, 2008 at 12:23 pm
Can we call our tech guy to deal with that smiley face? I’m trying to get rid of it. Maybe I’ve just been in Taiwan too long and its a law that everything you write has to be accompanied by at least some cute winking object.
4 Shinsano // Jan 20, 2008 at 4:17 pm
Funny, it’s actually hard to do.
5 Andy Behrens // Jan 20, 2008 at 11:47 pm
I’d add Dustin McGowan (11th round) and Chad Billingsley (12th) to the list above. Those two could dramatically outperform their draft position here, though I expect they’ll be well-hyped by mid-March. Also, Josh Hamilton in the 13th was pretty great. Posada in the 8th was nice, I thought, considering that the league would start two catchers.
Other things…
* Liriano will probably fall in lots of drafts because he’ll be buried in default rankings. He could definitely enter 2009 as a top-tier SP.
* Wang’s kind of a killer in leagues with IP limits, I think (76 K in 218 IP in ‘06, 104 in 199 last year). Definitely an acquired taste.
* Chris Young the OF went in Round 4, I believe; Chris Young the SP went in Round 8.
* Totally agree on Betancourt. In fact, I’m not sure what we were thinking. Even if leagues don’t use holds, he’s useful.
* Bonds in the 19th round is basically a no-risk pick. Liked that.
* Just looking at that draft board, I’d say the owners picking 11th and 12th overall did awfully well, especially early.
* Someone hammered me in draft chat for picking Delmon ahead of Wells, I’m fairly sure. Any thoughts on that?
6 Jackson // Jan 21, 2008 at 12:31 am
Hey Andy, good to hear from you.
Funny, I had Bonds on the list with the same thought and then crossed him off at the last minute.
Non-closing relief pitchers are such useful and overlooked commodities in fantasy, esp. daily transaction leagues. Pat Neshek is surely worth a higher pick too now that I’m looking at it again. If for no other reason than the tats and his bizarro delivery.
Kind of a weasel-y non answer, but I think Delmon/Wells issue isn’t so clear. Wells intrigues me less and less every season, and if the 2007 Wells shows up again you made the right call. I guess it depends on if you thought his major decline in production was abberant or an indication of future non-productivity.
Temper aside, which I think is a non-issue, Delmon’s K’s to BB’s ratio is simply atrocious (5.5 K’s/BB) and obviously that brings up issues with his plate judgement. But I can think of a certain free-swinging player who everyone dismissed because of his K’s but kept it up as a top 20 player. A hint: His name rhymes with “Chloriano”. If he gets his plate discipline under control even a little I like him better than Wells.
7 Shinsano // Jan 21, 2008 at 1:13 am
Thanks for stopping by Andy.
I thought the guy picking 12th had a great draft. Haren in the 6th and Francour in the 7th, not to mention getting Cabrera and Howard back to back with the 12th and 13th picks. LaRoche in the 16th?…gotta like that.
I thought in general people really waited on starting pitching, which looks like an early trend this year. Don’t quite know what to do to combat that yet…
Matt Kemp in the 11th surprised me seeing as he may platoon. For eternity. And I thought Shane Victorino in the 8th was a little wild. Can’t see him staying healthy. I’d rather take a chance on a Jason Bay bounceback…he fell all the way to the 9th. On that note I’d also sooner take Bay than Wells. I think people might lose sight of just how bad Wells was last year. Homers halved, RBIs down 26. His OPS dropped nearly 200 pts.
8 DFA // Jan 21, 2008 at 3:23 am
I like the point about Joba Chamberlain. Undefined. What will he be? Closer? Middle man? Starter? Makes him very hard to get a feel for in drafts. I’ll probably avoid him, even though I’d love to have him. Great pitchers are great pitchers, but I think fantasy is a different animal.
9 Jackson // Jan 21, 2008 at 11:16 am
I think it depends if your league counts holds. (And like I said, any respectable fantasy league counts holds). If it does, he has value no matter what. He’ll either end up as Mariano’s setup man, a starter, or if Rivera has any issues, closing. He’s got value in any role.
10 Shinsano // Jan 21, 2008 at 10:01 pm
Kind of an interesting question there. Joba as a starter? Kind of intriguing. Middle reliever? I like him, as Jackson says, if you’re doing holds. He might have his best value as a closer, but that’s the least likely of the three.
I’m guessing Joba will be overdrafted because he’s cool. I’d look for him in the 11-14 rd range. As of today his ADP is 143, just ahead of Wang, Billingsley and Bonderman. I’d take any of those three before Joba I think.
11 Aaron Cheats // Jan 22, 2008 at 9:31 am
Considering that one of the five tools is “hit for average,” Chris Young does not have all five tools. He has four. And he’s really woefully lacking the fifth.
12 Jackson // Jan 22, 2008 at 11:39 pm
I think it’s fair to think he’ll improve his average significantly this season. He was only a rookie last year.
That AZ team is loaded with young talent.
13 Aaron Cheats // Jan 23, 2008 at 10:54 am
Eh, he never walked and he struck out a ton. He never hit above .280 in the minor leagues, unless you count a half-season of rookie ball. Last year, the homers and steals were nice, but because he was an everyday leadoff hitter, he absolutely torpedoed roto teams’ batting average. I just don’t think his average will ever improve to the point where you can call him a “five-tool player.” And to call him one now is certainly premature.
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