I’m going to let a cat partially out of bag here. I was recently hired to do a part time scouting job similar to the one Jackson does for the Twins. I won’t post about my job directly, but I’m guessing my overall ability to analyse baseball is about to take a big jump. One thing I’m looking forward to is getting some better insights into the way pitchers pitch. I’ve always been fascinated by is natural movement. How some guys, due to some small difference in their delivery or grip, can get a small rise on a fastball, or an odd tail on a slider etc.
Naturally, being a Reds fan I’ll be watching a fair amount of their games via MLB.com. That is until they start losing and I stop watching them entirely. The pitcher I’m most interested in watching is Edison Volquez, who has had a solid spring and will occupy the fifth spot in Dusty Baker’s rotation. I was impressed by the fact that the Reds dealt Josh Hamilton. The move goes against conventional wisdom — I’ve even seen Hamilton compared to Mickey Mantle, which is silly, but lazy journalists tend to hop on his bandwagon because he’s got a storyline that can be written about anytime. The trade was roundly panned, again, due in part to said storyline. I’d love to see the Reds prove everyone wrong by getting a great career out of Volquez.
A new blog was just started a couple days ago by Doug Gray, who does a nice Reds minor league site, called Reds pitch f/x. This looks fantastic.
I plan on breaking down something each day of the season using the data. Maybe breaking down the starting pitchers games to see why their results where what they were. Once the season gets well underway, breaking down specific players to show their strengths and weaknesses.
His first entry is on Volquez using his pitch f/x data from last season. It seems one of the clear problems he’s had is the lack of a good off-speed pitch. His changeup was often coming in the mid 80s to upper 80s. I did read somewhere that this is something he’s improved on during spring training. His fastball is already there, and if I’m looking at the graph correctly (it’s possible I’m not) he’s got a rising fastball that he consistently throws in the mid to upper 90s that breaks in toward the hitter. Can’t wait to see it in action and can’t wait to see his individual starts broken down by Doug.
7 responses so far ↓
1 John Brooks // Mar 29, 2008 at 12:21 pm
I was impressed by the fact that the Reds dealt Josh Hamilton.
Yeah, I was impressed by the fact that they were willing to take a risk on trading a 25+ HR guy who could put it all together if he ever stay healthy, which is a if. Though he can DH for the Rangers.
Though, Volquez looks like he will a big sleeper, as he’s been lights out in the spring with 26K to just 4 BB’s and has allowed just 6 runs and no home runs either. Him and fellow prospect Johnny Cueto will join Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo in what could be the best NL pitching staff when its said and done this year. Also, prospect Homer Bailey figures to recieve the call from the Reds sooner or later.
Though with that said Reds management and esp Dusty Baker have rubbed me the wrong way with his rejection of common baseball sense when dealing with Joey Votto by saying that he should take more swings and change his plate approach after what was working fine in AAA and made him one of the top prospects in all of baseball.
Also, Baker seemed to reject baseball sense by basically handing the center field job to Patterson, after watching two yearsof him with the Orioles I don’t really see what people see in Patterson. So returning to my original point, the Reds pitching staff will be interesting to watch, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Baker doesn’t find a way to mess that all up since he has to reject common sense managing.
2 Ken // Mar 30, 2008 at 6:56 am
I’m excited about Volquez. As for his changeup, you might be remembering Valentin’s description of it as “nasty.”</a I think one of the Phillies also said that after one of the ST games.
3 Shinsano // Mar 30, 2008 at 10:04 am
That’s what it was Ken. Thanks. I don’t want to have too high of expectations, but he looks set to be more than your average fifth starter.
I have some of the same reservations about Baker, but I don’t really disagree with anything he’s done thus far. The Votto meddling worries me, but I think expectations of Votto have been that he’ll just automatically put up numbers like he did in garbage time last season. The Patterson signing looks like it might actually be ok.
4 yoshi // Mar 30, 2008 at 1:12 pm
good luck in your new venture. go get em.
5 Shinsano // Mar 30, 2008 at 6:26 pm
Thanks Yoshi.
6 John M // Apr 3, 2008 at 2:28 am
wow, a two-scout blog. heavy.
sorry to take so long with congratulations, but I’ve been in europe. no computer, no internet access. it was….pretty good, actually. made me remember the old days. you can exist without the silicon monster.
good luck with the scouting gig!
7 Shinsano // Apr 3, 2008 at 11:13 am
Thanks John. I recently had to rewrite my hard drive and have had a similar feeling. I hate losing all that data, but then at the same time I feel a little free.
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