Here’s a nice, consice analysis of how Chinese influence might take hold in a post-Kim Jong-il or chaotic North Korean landscape written by Andrei Lankov for the Asia Times. People who have done some extended reading on this subject are already aware of this increasingly likely scenario, but for those who don’t follow this closely this is well worth your time.

While small Chinese merchants, obviously driven by their own initiative, sell consumption goods to the North Korean market operators, big Chinese companies, probably backed by the government, are busily establishing control over the mining industry and making inroads into infrastructure developments.

The country’s largest iron ore mine, in Musan, as well as its largest copper mine, in Hyesan, are operated by joint ventures controlled by Chinese capital. Talks about rights to use Korean sea ports are advancing as well, albeit not without delays. And, last but not least, Chinese publications stress that the ancient kingdom of Koryo which in the early centuries of the Christian era controlled what is now North Korea (as well as large parts of the present day northeast China) was, essentially, an “ancient Chinese minority state” - implying that the Korean north has long been an area where China played a special role.

It’s important to note this is the running Chinese view of the situation, and that in a sense, moving into North Korea would be as natural as moving into Tibet was.

The Chinese might even undertake a pre-emptive operation, without waiting for disaster to strike. The North Korean elite is deadly afraid of unification with the South, assuming that after such a unification they will be held responsible for their old deeds, purged and perhaps even killed (this is unlikely to happen, but being in the habit of killing their own opponents, these people have some trouble in realizing that political defeat does not necessarily lead to a slaughter).

A pro-Chinese government would keep Kim’s officials in place - alive and well they would enjoy an increasingly affluent lifestyle. So, joining hands with the Chinese against the supposed brethren in the South seems to be a logical decision - at least if things get seriously unstable. This makes a pro-Chinese coup in Pyongyang a distinct possibility.

Lankov makes it clear this is not the best possible outcome. That, he believes, would be a full reunification with the South. However, he doesn’t believe South Korea has shown a true interest in making it happen. He goes so far as to suggest the country is evading reunification because of the financial hit it would likely be forced to absorb.