I became interested in sports betting at a very early age, tuning into a Las Vegas station called KDWN when it got late enough at night that the reception was decent. Once I was in high school, and old enough to start lose my hard earned dollars from working at a local butcher shop, I quit betting.

But I’m still turned on by odds and bookmaking. For all the projection services out there, I’ll still put my money on the bookie down at the Stardust. Afterall, they have more at stake. Maybe even their lives. I’d actually like to see some analysis of how oddsmakers stack up to PECOTA or the others.

So without anything further I’m going to run down the win total over/unders for the upcoming season. Seeing as these are for betting purposes I’d love to hear what other people have to say. What looks good to you? Any sure things here?

These are real up-to-the-minute odds as posted by BetChris.com. And P.S. two of the picks I feel strongest about are at the bottom.

Arizona 88

Over– Not sure how the D-Backs do it, but despite outperforming their pythagorean record and not having much star power, they consistently win close ballgames under Bob Melvin. I like Drew and Upton the Youngers with another year under their belts and I especially like Dan Haren as a No. 2. I think they can win 90 again and challenge in the NL West.

Atlanta 86

Over– Tough call here, but the Braves come out looking a little underrated in a good division. Don’t forget this team won 84 games last year and will now have the benefit of a full year of free-agent to be Mark Teixeira. They also have a manager far superior to those in New York and Philadelphia. Atlanta may win this division.

Baltimore 65.5

Under– The worst team in baseball during 2007 was the Devil Rays, who won 66 games. Baltimore won 69. Does losing Erik Bedard and Miguel Tejada make this team five wins worse heading into 2008? Sure.

Boston 94

Over– There are three great teams in the AL this year: Boston, Cleveland and the Yankees. All should make a run at 100 wins and will each win at least 94. The only way Boston doesn’t is if there’s an unforeseeable injury. This team lost nothing during the offseason.

Chicago(NL) 88

Over– Suddenly the NL Central is feeling like an underrated division, but this number looks to be a holdover. The Cubs starting lineup is loaded and if Kosuke Fukudome’s OBP approaches .390 this team wins 90 with little problem. I like the bullpen with Kerry Wood, Chris Marmol and Bob Howry too.

Chicago(AL) 78

Under– I actually like the White Sox a little this year with the addition of Nick Swisher. And Bobby Jenks is nearly as underrated a closer as Takashi Saito. I see them being somewhat competitive through the first half of the season, but then completely falling apart and possibly finishing last in the central. The offense is decent — though it hinges on Thome, Dye, Konerko and Crede all staying healthy. The rotation is suspect with Javier Vazquez as the only sure thing. The team is also relying on Octavio Dotel and Scott Linebrink, two pitchers that haven’t been effective since 2004 and 2005 respectively, to fill big rolls in the bullpen.

Cincinnati 78

Over– Bit of a homer pick here and I would never bet money on the Reds, but I think the relief corps has been upgraded enough to make this a .500 ballclub. Johnny Cueto and Ednison Volquez have been positively rad this spring and could spark the team big time. This over/under total was higher a month ago.

Cleveland 90

Over– Probably my favorite pick on here. I like Pronk Hafner to bounce back and I like Ryan Garko (27) to have a breakout year. Gary Sizemore is only 26. Huh? The rotation could be a bit of a weak spot, because I don’t think Paul Byrd can do what he did last year. Yet, I like Jake Westbrook to pitch a big closer to what he did down the stretch last season. The bullpen is arguably the best in baseball, even with an ify closer.

Colorado 83

Over– I also feel strongly about this pick. Last year this team won 90 and its Pythagorean was 91. I wasn’t a believer last year, but the more I read, the more I believe in what they did last year and what they will do this coming year. They only look stronger with Jayson Nix at second and a full year of Willy Tavares, who snuck his OBP up 34 points last season. By 2010 this could be the best team in baseball.

Detroit 93

Under– It always makes me weary when everyone in the media starts rallying around a team. This offense is absolutely loaded and will be fun to watch. But beyond that what have we got? We’ve got Kenny Rogers as the No. 2 starter, and Jeremy Bonderman and Dontrelle Willis, who are both coming off 5+ ERA years. Everyone wants D-Train to bounce back, but is that enough to make it so? They have arguably the worst closer in baseball in Todd Jones, and the two guys behind him Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney will both begin the year on the DL. It’s up to you Denny Bautista. What?

Florida 68.5

Under– Here’s a wild prediction: Jeremy Hermida will post numbers in 2008 that will rival those of Miguel Cabrera put up during 2007. But the problem isn’t the offense, it’s the starting pitching which will roll with Scott Olsen, Sergio Mitre, Ricky Nolasco, Andrew Miller and Mark Hendrickson. No thanks.

Houston 75

Under– Ever wonder why Chicago and Milwaukee got so much better after they got rid of Carlos Lee? Me too. But it would take more than getting rid of Lee to save this mess Ed Wade is putting together in Houston. He gutted the farm system to get Miguel Tejada, which might have been a nice move in 2004, but his power has halved since then. That said, the real stank is the pitching, which could feature both Woody Williams and Shawn Chacon in its starting rotation. Brian Moehler and Geoff Geary will be in the pen. Even winning 75 seems like such a stretch. This team could lose 100.

Kansas City 73.5

Over– What can I say? I buy into what Dayton Moore is doing. Alex Gordon will be better, a full year of Billy Butler will be better, and I see Trey Hillman as an upgrade. This isn’t a great team, but the Royals should stay out of the cellar and challenge for 3rd place. Close to .500 or a touch under will just beat this rising projected win total.

Los Angeles(AL) 91

Under — This is a tough tough number. In writing an MLBTR post about the Angels losing two guys (Lackey and Escobar) that combined for 37 total wins in 2007, I realized this team could fall quite a bit if one or both of those guys is out more than six weeks. The offense is still solid, but not 94 wins solid. If both come back and pitch well this could be a 91 win team. If not, they’ll be closer to 85. I wouldn’t touch this bet.

Los Angeles(NL) 87

Under — Another team I wouldn’t touch. On paper the Dodgers have a great rotation and a premiere bullpen. With Juan Pierre out of the lineup I like them better. Russell Martin could have a breakout, huge year, that establishes him as the best catcher in the game. One problem is they play in the NL West, which, even with the Giants, is top to bottom the best division in baseball. They can’t all win 88 games.

Milwaukee 84

Under– Milwaukee won 83 games last year. Are they two wins better? I don’t think so, but they could win 83 again. Once Eric Gagne blows himself out of the closer roll the team will turn to Derrick Turnbow. That’s scary. David Riske could be the closer by year’s end. I think Prince Fielder will have a huge year and Corey Hart might too. But I don’t think Ryan Braun will do anything beyond what he did last year, even with a full April and May.

Minnesota 74

Over– I think the Twins are a little young. I actually like the rotation with solid defense up the middle, Scott Baker, and a slimmed Boof Bonzer. Francisco Liriano is obviously the big key. Starting Carlos Gomez is a big roll of the dice, but it’s hard to imagine the Twins falling apart. I’ll hold my nose and take the over.

New York(NL) 93

Under– I thought the post-Santana trade Mets hype was so absurd. This team is a couple rainy days away from an infirmary, and the rotation beyond Santana is a big question mark. Sure Pedro Martinez could have a nice year, but it’s nothing I’d put money on. The last time Carlos Beltran played a full season was as a Royal. If everyone is absolutely healthy they’ll make a run at 93. Not 94.  

New York(AL) 94

Over– People forget what an amazing job Joe Girardi did in Florida, and this team still won 94 games last year (Pythagorean 97). The Yankees biggest enemy is themselves and now, age. I think they’re less an enemy of themselves with Girardi in control. AL East teams scored 6.67 runs per game off Mike Mussina. Outside of him, I like the rotation with Wang, Hughes, Kennedy, and Pettitte, who is the one guy I can see emerging from the Mitchell report mess in a positive way. This is a high number, but I’d take it if I had to.

Oakland 73.5

Under — I wouldn’t touch this either, just because the A’s have managed to go against the current so many times over the last five years. But the last time Emil Brown started for a full season was with the 2006 Kansas City Royals, who lost 100 games. I don’t see the 2008 A’s being much better than that Royal team. The starting rotation could be better than some expect, but the lineup borderline tragic.

Philadelphia 88

Over– I was ready to put this team in 3rd or even 4th in the division, but Brett Myers, who is the key to the Phils rotation, has been sensational this spring. I don’t like Lidge as the closer, and the rest of the bullpen is shakier than Charlie Manuel’s ass. Still, the offense is the best in the NL and will probably propel the team to 90 wins.

Pittsburgh 70

Over – New Pirates GM Neal Huntington is a smart guy and was right to sit on this team over the offseason. He’s being methodical. He signed Ian Snell to a long-term deal, and he’ll do the same with Adam LaRoche. Watch him flip Jason Bay and Xavier Nady during the year, probably closer to the deadline, and see what he gets. I expect this team to improve this year, but I can’t say they’ll quite win 72 games, but maybe 71. This number has gone up a lot in the last month…lots of money coming in on the Pirates.

San Diego 84.5

Under– Want to hear a scary statistic? Opposing batters racked up an OPSs of .895 and .846 vs. Trevor Hoffman in Aug.-Oct. of last season. I don’t think Hoffman is “done,” but he’s probably finally in decline. Over the winter I was penciling in the Pads as my World Series pick in the NL, but I can’t do that now. Jim Edmonds is a downgrade in center and is already hurt. Jake Peavy and Chris Young will carry this team, and I like Kevin Kouzmanoff and Adrian Gonzalez offensively, but I think the Padres are about to get caught between two solid eras and have a little hitch this season. They can still challenge for the wild card though.

San Francisco 71

Over– This team is bad, but are they 70 wins bad? I say no, but just barely. Let’s start with Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, who in two years will be the new Peavy/Young of the NL West. Closer Brian Wilson is better than people think. The offense is bad, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Bengie Molina and Aaron Rowand, as the leaders of the offense, out-perform people’s expectations (which are around zero currently). Another bet I wouldn’t make though.

St. Louis 76

Over– Here’s a weird team. I like the offense with Troy Glaus and Rick Ankiel for a full year. The rotation isn’t good, but Adam Wainright was better than most realized, and Kyle Lohse makes it a bit stronger. The bullpen isn’t terrible either. This is a low number and the Cards are the forgotten team in a better NL Central. Why can’t the Cardinals play .500 ball?

Tampa Bay Rays 76

Under– I liked this team better two weeks ago when Scott Kazmir was possibly on track to start opening day and Evan Longoria was looking like the starting 3B. Why am I less inclined to think this team can win 77 games? This number was 73.5 a month ago, lots of retirement money floating in. Tampa is an up and coming team. A .500 team? Don’t know about that.

Texas Rangers 75

Under– If Josh Hamilton and Milton Bradley played the entire year this team could gel a little. The odds of that happening are 10,000 to 1. What does this starting rotation of Kevin Millwood, Vincente Padilla, Jason Jennings, Brandon McCarthy and Kason Gabbard smell like to you? An improvement over last year’s 75 wins? Not likely.

Toronto 85.5

Under– As I said, I feel strongly about the next two picks. Toronto is on the brink of a collapse. The Jays have been a chic sleeper team for three or four years, mostly because they play in a division they can’t possibly win and have finished 3rd by default. Roy Halladay, who some still consider a staff ace, has seen his BB/9 and K/9 rates moving in the wrong directions for several years. AJ Burnett is potentially a staff ace, but has the heart of a No. 5. The lineup is utterly dependent on a healthy Frank Thomas and a rebound year for Vernon Wells. Possible? Sure. Likely? I think this is the year it all falls apart.

Washington 71.5

Over– Possibly my favorite pick on here. The team is moving from a fairly extreme hitters haven into what will likely play as a pitchers park. People are suddenly going to realize how good Jon Rauch is. Chad Cordero gave up a hit per inning during 2007, but halved his home runs. He was unlucky. This team had the lowest OBP in baseball last year, but is about to get back one of the few .400 OBP players in Nick Johnson. Look for him to start at first. Throw in a breakout year from Ryan Zimmerman and you have a 75 win team. If Lastings Milledge also breaks out, this team will make a run at .500.