Cheap home runs. Balls that just barely go over the wall. Makes sense doesn’t it? The Hardball Times, using data from Greg Rybarczyk’s Hit Tracker — a site that tracks every homer hit — has an article concerning long balls, theorizing that the information might just shed some light on homers for the 2008 season.
Here’s how Rybarczyk breaks down home runs:
- “Just Enough” or “JE”, which means the ball cleared the fence by less than 10 vertical feet, OR that it landed less than one fence height past the fence. These are the ones that barely made it over the fence…
- “No Doubt”, or “ND”, which means the ball cleared the fence by at least 20 vertical feet AND landed at least 50 feet past the fence. These are the really deep blasts…
- “Plenty”, or “PL”, which is everything else.
So who led the NL in “Just Enough” home runs? Brandon Phillips. Uh-oh said the Reds fan. He led both leagues with 14. He hit 30 in total. Jim Thome led the AL with 15. Makes sense that both these guys would see their power numbers drop by at least 25% of the Just Enough category.
On the flip side Adam Dunn had one of the lowest Just Enough rates — third behind Pat Burrell and Carlos Beltran.
Another amazing factiod is the fact that Gary Sheffield and Carlos Guillen had just three Just Enough homers between the two of them last year. Scary. Conversely, 56 of the Giants 131 HRs were cheap (42.75%). That led the league. Should be a high-flying summer in SF.
5 responses so far ↓
1 Ted // Feb 27, 2008 at 6:44 am
I’m not usually one to criticize the work of those who are actually able to utilize excel spreadsheets (and add, subtract, multiply, etc.), but this is the first article in a while that just didn’t hit home at all.
I don’t even think I could tell you why, something about the massive subjectivity of it, but I don’t buy it.
How’s that for a conversation killer?
2 Shinsano // Feb 27, 2008 at 10:09 am
Yeah, what a killjoy you are Ted. Damn.
I kind of liked this. I mean, it seems to me there’s a big difference between a 440 ft. shot and a 375 ft. homer that just barely clears the wall — even though they both count just one run. Seems like the chances are good that Brandon Phillips and Jim Thome will see drops in dingers.
3 Ted // Feb 27, 2008 at 11:14 am
I guess it’s my intuitive sense that a guy is just as likely to improve on that marginal number as he is to devolve, especially a youngster like Phillips. (an old guy, not so much)
Did I mention that I’ve picked Brandon Phillips in every one of my drafts so far this year?
4 Simon Currie // Feb 27, 2008 at 11:25 am
Reduced dimensions in DC (right?) means that many near misses from last year should turn into homers this year, that’s the other side of the coin.
5 Shinsano // Feb 27, 2008 at 8:49 pm
Actually I agree with you Ted. I think there’s something to the data, but with a young player like Phillips you’d think he might improve enough to make the data kind of irrelevant. With Thome not so much.
Simon: I think that’s right. Although Zimmerman was one of the guys with a lot of cheapies.
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