When you look at the Arizona Diamondbacks, it just doesn’t look like a World Series club.
The reason being–it’s not. It’s an average lineup. Beyond Brandon Webb, the starting rotation isn’t great either. The bullpen is solid–top 7 in baseball. Hmmm.
The reason you keep hearing words like “intangibles,” “heart,” and “great in-game management” is because no one really knows why the Diamondbacks are playing for the right to go to the World Series.
The Colorado Rockies on the other hand do have a World Series kind of lineup. The No. 6 hitter, Brad Hawpe, would bat cleanup on the D-backs. As would Matt Holiday, Garrett Atkins, and possibly Todd Helton. In fact, if you were to choose a lineup, picking between the current Rockies and D-backs at each position, how many guys from Arizona would you take?
Definately one. Chris Young in CF. Maybe you’d take Snydetero over Yorvit Torrealba behind the plate.
Colorado should win this series. But there is a caveat. If Brandon Webb pitches in games 1, 4 and 7, Arizona can win 3 games. He’s that good. He can almost win this series by himself.
From my point of view, the key to this series is exactly Brandon Webb. So with that in mind, lets take a look at how the Rockies, and namely its Japanese leadoff hitter, fare against a guy they could wind up facing nearly half the time.
During the Rockies big run to close the season Kaz was cold as ice. In September he slugged (.299) less than he got on base (.316). Of course he was great in games 2 and 3 vs. the Phillies, but if the Rocks face Webb three times in this series, runs will likely be at a premium. Post All-Star break Webb gave up more than 4 runs just twice. He gave up 2 or fewer runs 10 times in the same time span.
Matsui hits Webb as well as anyone. In 2007 he tagged him at a .417/.526/.647 clip. Even in the Sept. 26 matchup when Webb beat the Rockies 4-2, haulting Colorado’s 11-game win streak Matsui was 2-for-5.
Opening Day vs. Webb, Matsui hit second and was 2-for4 with a run and an RBI in a no decision for Arizona’s ace.
Two weeks later, during the Steve Finley era in Colorado, Matsui hit second again and the Rockies beat Webb 6-3. Matsui was 3-for-5.
The next time they met Matsui doubled twice with 3 RBI, knocking Webb out of the game in the 7th.
Do you see a pattern here? Granted, Webb was a different pitcher by the end of the season, and Webb is always capable of beating anyone. But Matsui, and the Rockies hit Webb quite well in 2007.
Ah, so that’s why Clint Hurdle picked Willy Taveras over Aaron Cook.
Does this mean Colorado will easily win the series? No, but if Matsui continues his pattern against Webb they will be in an excellent position to do so…say, 4-2.
6 responses so far ↓
1 Yakyuu Shonen // Oct 12, 2007 at 2:13 am
One interesting thing is that Arizona was 32-20 in 1-run games, while Colorado was 19-19. In one respect, one could say that Arizona got lucky in a lot of close games, giving them the victories needed to win the division. Of course, you could also say that they just did what needed to be done to win those close games.
Once in the postseason, anything can happen. Any team can be hot or cold for a handful of games, which wins or loses series.
The Webb versus Matsui matchup is interesting (as is the Webb versus Colorado matchup in general). Where were those games played, though? Arizona (like tonight’s game), Colorado, or a mix between the two?
I’m rooting heavily for those Rockies, but no team can be discounted in the postseason, and the Diamondbacks have a roughly 1 in 4 chance of winning the World Series at this point, I figure, as do the other teams.
2 A.S. // Oct 12, 2007 at 9:43 am
Wow, they’ve got Taveras starting and leading off tonight. Interesting. I think I would keep Matsui leading off, and Tulowitzki in the 2 hole. Put Taveras at the bottom of the lineup.
Arizona has played a lot of one run games since Bob Melvin became manager. It definitely not something you can really control as a manager, and there’s a lot of luck involved, but developing a psychology of winning close games seems entirely possible.
3 of the games were in Colorado, 2 in Arizona…
3 Yakyuu Shonen // Oct 13, 2007 at 12:08 am
They went out and beat Mr. Webb in Arizona… This seems to bode kinda well, with Colorado winning against the star pitcher on the road to begin the series. The Rockies hit .360 against Webb. Matsui was only 1 for 5, but scored and run and drove in a run. looks like your analysis was right-on; I wonder if the Rockies will end up facing him again this series.
4 A.S. // Oct 13, 2007 at 12:26 pm
I would assume Webb would start Game 4. After that display by the Arizona fans last night (following a perfectly good call by the umpire) I have to say my rooting interest extends beyond hoping my prediction is correct.
And I read these games aren’t even close to being sold out!
The more I see that Arizona linup the less I understand how they beat the Cubs.
5 Yakyuu Shonen // Oct 13, 2007 at 10:22 pm
Well, the Cubs have kind of seemed like a really streaky team this season. They were ultimately a good team and managed to make it into the playoffs thanks in part to a bit of a Brewers collapse, but they’ve been kind of streaky. The Diamondbacks seemed to stay above the fray in the NL West for a long time… I’m not sure how many days out of the season they were in first, but to their credit, they did beat back that opposition.
Those Rockies won again… An incredibly awesome team, it would seem.
6 jackson // Oct 15, 2007 at 11:49 pm
The rockies remind me a lot of the ‘87 Twins team that won it….
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