Good article by Jim Allen for ESPN talking about the different options teams have available from Japan. I think with any group of free agents the market and the mood of those paying can go any number of ways at any given time. Allen is calling it “questionable” here, and it is in its infant state, but once the prices come down on these guys (I think they will except in the case of Tazawa), things will heat up and we won’t consider it questionable anymore.
Like Kuroda, Kawakami is a bulldog on the mound, but the right-hander’s durability became an issue after he hit the skids following a 9-1 start in 2006. His ERA jumped more than 2.5 runs after June 23 that season, and he finished 17-7.
Scouts Isao Ojimi of the New York Mets and Steve Wilson of the Chicago Cubs said Kawakami, who was 9-5 with a 2.30 ERA this season, would be a good fit in the majors as a fifth starter and will benefit from as much extra rest as he can get.
Unlike Kuroda, who put together mouth-watering ERAs despite pitching in Japan’s best hitters’ park, Kawakami’s 3.22 career ERA was fashioned in an extreme pitchers’ park with one of the country’s better defensive units playing behind him.
That’s the big difference in the level of hype that we had for Kuroda last year and the relative non-hype we have for Kawakami this year. It’s more attractive to project a good pitcher in a small park doing well in a larger park (Chavez-Ravine) than the opposite.
I’ve got some CHONE projections for both Kawakami and Koji Uehara that I’ll put together in the next day or two. For the right price either pitcher can be a very good sign.
I especially like this “check yer-self” part about Tazawa. I haven’t read anything like this in the mainstream media yet. I guess that’s the difference between a writer living and working in Japan and writers in the states who are mostly regurgitating info they pulled from NPBTracker. Not that there’s any lack of info on Patrick’s site…I just don’t like it when the mainstream media has no qualms about using info from a blog without crediting it.
A decade after Uehara passed on his opportunity to be Japan’s first top amateur to go directly to the U.S., that distinction now will go to corporate-league right-hander Tazawa.
Tazawa, who stands 5 feet, 10 inches — “5-11 if you really like him,” Wilson said — will get a major league deal this winter but is unlikely to make it to the majors during that first season.
He has good command of his fastball and slurve, but he lacks velocity, stamina and the ability to keep the ball down.
The talk of a deal worth as much as $4 million is testimony not to Tazawa’s talent, but to the soaring appreciation of Japan’s game. Fourteen years ago, no major league club would have paid a penny for Japan’s best player. Hideo Nomo changed that.
It wasn’t long before the trickle of scouts flowing through Japan became a stream. Major league teams now are making high-level offers to established stars some 10 years after Nomo got it all started.
But buying established stars requires paying top dollar, and if the best Japanese amateurs are available at a tiny fraction of that price, why not go that route? Thus was born the Tazawa buzz.
The right-hander would have gone in the first round of Nippon Professional Baseball’s recent draft, but that is a long way from being ready for the majors.
I kind of agree about the Tazawa buzz, but it seems to me a lot of the hype stems from the fact that teams just haven’t scouted him all that much. People hear about a Japanese player that other teams are considering giving Top 10 pick money to and they can’t help but be suddenly interested. But a number of those teams don’t have anyone living in Japan let alone Asia.
18 responses so far ↓
1 Patrick // Nov 24, 2008 at 5:17 am
One of the reasons I started my blog was to provide a source of more accurate information on Japanese baseball, almost as a direct response to this kind of crap.
Generally speaking I don’t worry too much about being credited since all my material comes from Japanese media sources in the first place. But there is definitely more information out there because of my site and mlbtraderumors.com than there would be otherwise.
One of the things that I haven’t done particularly well is call attention to the fact that the guy is an amateur and not a sure thing. I’ve mostly tried to put scouting info, video, stats and other stuff out there and let people make their own decisions. That hasn’t worked particularly well as I’ve seen Tazawa referred to as a “phenom” or “the best young pitcher in Japan” and seen his salary demands as being $7M/year. Remember that Yu Darvish is a couple months younger than Tazawa.
2 Red Sox Offer Tazawa $6M » NPB Tracker // Nov 24, 2008 at 5:46 am
[...] the spirit of keepin’ it real, here’s a great article from Jim Allen, and a great response from Aaron Shinsano of East Windup [...]
3 Shinsano // Nov 24, 2008 at 9:13 am
That’s a funny article Patrick. Apparently, that guy categorically doesn’t like Japanese pitchers, but then he goes on to talk about how much he likes Yu Darvish. He’s obviously given it a lot of thought….as you can see from his column photo. lol.
4 John Brooks // Nov 24, 2008 at 10:57 am
It’s the American sports media, its too hard for them to research and follow up anything and it isn’t going to change. The problem is that too many naive and uninformed MLB fans take these guys at worth since they think there experts.
Look I’m no expert on the game in NPB, but there was a lot that bothered me in that article Patrick showed:
None of the three pitchers in question seems like a distinctly better option than the other two. They’re all 32 years old. Kawakami was a successful reliever from 1999-2006 before joining the Cunichi rotation in 2007 and posting a 3.60 ERA with 141 strikeouts in 162 1/3 innings. Uehara followed an opposite path, starting from 1999-2006 then switching to the bullpen in 2007 to notch a 1.74 ERA and 66 strikeouts over 62 innings. Kuroda has been a starter for most of his career. In 2007, he struck out 123 batters in 179 2/3 innings with a 3.56 ERA for the Hiroshima Toyo Carp.
Kawakami was a reliever from 1999 to 2006? How hard is it for American news reporters to check his stats. It shows he was a starter in 1999 to 2006. Plus anyway he debuted in 1998
As for Kuroda, he played in one of the worst pitcher parks in NPB in Hiroshima.
Back to Kawakami, like Allen mentioned it was in one of the best hitter’s park in NPB. I like him in a #4-5 starter role on a West Coast team(well not Texas but I dont consider them West Coast).
Look what happened to Byung-Hyun Kim. The diminutive Korean was nearly unhittable in his first several season in the bigs, then completely fell apart.
I still think Kim fell apart when teams try to knee jerk him from the pen where he was great from 1999 to 2003. Then they moved him to the rotation and he fell apart. That said he didn’t do any favors when he flipped off the fans in Boston. That said I believe that when teams started messing with him moving him out of relief he collapsed. It was terrible judgement by MLB teams to move Kim out of a role he excelled in.
It seems like a lot of the Asian pitchers that have been imported to the U.S. rely on deceptive deliveries. Hideo Nomo, the first in the recent surge of Japanese big leaguers, is a great example. Nomo twisted his body before throwing the ball, and his windup apparently took unfamiliar hitters a while to get used to. He was dominant in his first season, very good in his second, and never much better than average thereafter — save for a brief resurgence in 2004.
Did it ever occur to so-called experts like Berg that he should do some research on the abuse Nomo took while with the Kintetsu Buffaloes under Keishi Suzuki:
Nomo NPB Stats
The left-hander, who swings his head downward as he releases the ball, enjoyed a stellar first half of the season to the tune of a 0.83 ERA in 43 1/3 innings, but leveled after the All-Star break, yielding a 4.56 ERA in his last 25 2/3 innings.
So based on one whole half season, were going to write off the guy Berg? Yeah, because I mean lets make a rash judgement on a half season. Let’s look at his second year:
1st Half: 2-2, 2.82 ERA, 38.1 IP, 16 BB/37 K
2nd Half: 1-0, 2.28 ERA, 23.2 IP, 7 BB/23 K
Okajima 2008 Splits
Daisuke Matsuzaka may have won 15 games for the Red Sox this season, but it’s very difficult to argue that he was worth his monstrous contract and posting fee. His 4.40 ERA was only slightly better than league average, and he, too, faltered in the latter part of the season.
Where was the outrage on pitchers like Gil Meche, who got $11 million this year? Matsuzaka is making only $8M/a year. Plus he still had a 107+ERA in 2007 so I wouldn’t call it a complete loss.
Plus, to all his detractors what do they have to say about his 2008 year? Do I think he will be repeat his 2008 numbers in 2009, probably not completely, but he will be a very serviceable 2-3 starter and a hell lot better than Gil Meche.
Finally, I get sick of the damn arguement Matsuzaka cost $51 million to acquire? Who gives a f—? It’s not like the posting fee counts against the budget. Plus at the $52 million he got that was a relative bargin compared to the half the Silva’s and Meche’s of the world.
And I don’t think I need to remind anybody about Hideki I-Robbed-You.
So because Hideki Irabu failed, were not going to sign another Japanese player? Nice logic there Berg. Way to help your team win, maybe that’s half the problem the Mets are in the problem there in. Because their ownership and fan base is so opposed to signing NPB players because Kaz Matsui didn’t meet the insane expectations they gave him and are like we don’t want another NPB player because there all going to be flops. Not trying to label all Mets fans this way but there is a lot of them who are like this.
don’t forget that Tsuyoshi Shinjo was a power hitter there
This is another one I don’t understand this one either, Shinjo wasn’t really what you called a power hitter in NPB, sure he hit 20+ HR’s a few times, but teams and fans should of kept their expectations intact and know that they were getting a 4th outfielder who would been great if he was in that role as a major leaguer.
Another pitcher, Kazumi Saito is under contract with the Fukuoka Hawks through 2008
This is another one that gets on my nerves. You would not know how many times I had to say on Japanese Baseball that Saitoh is not a free agent after 2008. He wont even be a free agent until 2010-12. If someone like me can look Saitoh’s service time in Sponichi who doesn’t understand a word of Japanese, why can’t guys who work at major sport networks do it? You think they have more sources than a person like me in Japan to find out this stuff?
5 Patrick // Nov 24, 2008 at 2:27 pm
So the funny thing, John, is that when that got posted to MLBTraderumors.com, I had almost the same reaction. I sent Tim an email shooting this guy down, almost exactly like you did here, and then starting feeding him info on NPB until I finally decided to start my own site.
6 Shinsano // Nov 24, 2008 at 2:42 pm
Ah, so that article was indirectly the inspiration for your site? Nice. Kind of like the dollar bill a shopkeeper puts on his wall.
I’d make a case for Mr. Berg being a racist…but it’s not worth our time.
7 Patrick // Nov 24, 2008 at 3:06 pm
Well, people had been telling me for years that I should do something with my knowledge of Japanese baseball. Wanting to combat that kind of misinformation is certainly a motivating factor for me, but I don’t really want to limit myself to that.
8 Westbaystars // Nov 24, 2008 at 9:04 pm
That was my motivation back in 1995 to start writing about NPB - the mis-information about Japanese baseball I was reading on ESPN Net (part of StarNet or something similar back then). The whole Kevin Mitchell being mistreated sob story they were telling didn’t sound anything like the Kevin Mitchell hanging out in bars with some Navy friends while the team was down the street playing a ball game.
Getting fed up about mis-information by the mainstream press seems to be a big motivator for many people to start.
9 With mediocre scouting reports, Sox offer Tazawa a deal | River Avenue Blues // Nov 24, 2008 at 11:31 pm
[...] For what it’s worth, East Windup Chronicle, another on-the-scenes site, echoes Allen’s less-than-glowing endorsement. [...]
10 SoxAcumen // Nov 25, 2008 at 1:46 pm
As a member of the Red Sox Nation, I hope all the other organizations listen to the detractors of Japanese born baseball players. Personally, I love the guys we got in Boston. They are all professional, they know their stuff and they are tough in big game situations.
Okajima is one of my favorites, he is one of the Sox most tough and reliable relievers. The guy never gives in, same with Dice-K. So he gives up a bomb every now and then, who doesnt?
American fans, IMO, do not understand the Japanese style of pitching, so they immediately think its inferior. This is not the case, its different but can be equally effective. Oki and Dice have both proven that in big games.
I was hoping the Sox would take a shot on Kawakami this season since we have had such great luck with Dice-K and Oki.
Red Sox fans want more Japanese players, position players and pitchers. They add an element that truly benefits our team.
So keep the hate up maybe we can get first shot at all the talent in Japan….=)
11 Patrick // Nov 25, 2008 at 4:01 pm
“That was my motivation back in 1995 to start writing about NPB - the mis-information about Japanese baseball I was reading on ESPN Net (part of StarNet or something similar back then). “
I started reading JapaneseBaseball.com around 1997 or 98, then regularly around 2000, then finally started posting in 2003. It was a very different cast of characters back then. Anyway, seeing what you’ve done with your site over the years was another motivating factor.
Another thing was that I found myself getting too entrenched in work and not really taking enough time to do things I enjoy, so I started the site to give myself a break. I have kind of an insane work schedule.
And finally, I am hoping to attract new fans to Japanese baseball in particular and baseball outside of America in general. A lot of my content caters to hot-stove type readers (particularly the Tazawa stuff), which I struggle with at times because I don’t want to feed the perception that Japanese baseball is dying. But I’d rather that info come from me than someone like Ted Berg. And if 1% of those readers become Japanese baseball fans, I will feel pretty good about that.
12 John Brooks // Nov 25, 2008 at 11:49 pm
And finally, I am hoping to attract new fans to Japanese baseball in particular and baseball outside of America in general. A lot of my content caters to hot-stove type readers (particularly the Tazawa stuff), which I struggle with at times because I don’t want to feed the perception that Japanese baseball is dying. But I’d rather that info come from me than someone like Ted Berg. And if 1% of those readers become Japanese baseball fans, I will feel pretty good about that.
Wanting to learn more about baseball in Japan was how I stumbled upon NPB. Intrigued by of all the players coming to MLB from NPB, I said I wanted to find out more about the game in Japan, so in winter of 2003 I stumbled upon Westbay’s great website. For a while I would just lurk around the forums posting occassionally till when the players went on strike(which was about June 2004).
I was a regular on the site from like June 2004 to like early February 2008(until I started to lose track of the news go arounds in NPB). In the spring I had numerous things that took up my time. By the fall, I have the time to look at NPB and more sources to keep informed about the game.
Over the years over at Japanese Baseball, I spent my years trying to fight the misconceptions about NPB to the detractors of the game. From a short time in 2006 to 2007 I even spent a short time trying to inform a small base about the game with a blog of mine which due to time constraints don’t exist anymore.
13 Patrick // Nov 26, 2008 at 12:52 am
You should start up again. Believe me, if I can find time for this, just about anyone can.
14 Ted Berg // Dec 8, 2008 at 9:34 am
Hey guys — found my way here so I figured I’d chime in. Sorry if my article from last year seemed ignorant, I did my best to temper a lot of what was definitely speculation. I was doing the best I could based on very little available information.
That said, if that article was partly responsible for the creation of NPBTracker, I’m happy I wrote it.
Anyway, for anything that might have been obnoxiously wrong in the column, my bad.
15 Shinsano // Dec 8, 2008 at 2:44 pm
Well, it’d be more fun if Ted Berg was a big jerk, but I’m disarmed. Thanks Ted.
And he’s right…above everything else we should all be thankful that NBP Tracker spawned from that article.
16 Patrick // Dec 8, 2008 at 5:29 pm
Count me among the disarmed. Inspiration takes many forms, and it was definitely Ted’s article that prompted me to take action.
Ted, despite singling you out, I didn’t mean to pick on you individually. Japanese and Asian baseball is frequently misrepresented in the American media, which I’ve always found frustrating as a fan of the Japanese game. I hope my site helps improve on the information that is available on Japanese players, and I think on a small scale it already has.
17 Ted Berg // Dec 8, 2008 at 8:37 pm
It’s funny to me because I often find myself railing against NY newspaper writers for doing all the same things that irritated you guys. It’s humbling but ultimately helpful to be on the other side of the coin.
Sorry to disarm. I could act like a jerk if you guys want a face to put a target on, but truth be told I love the influx of new sites and info about Japanese baseball. Maybe I’ll write a short-sighted column about the Mexican Pacific League and hope it inspires an MPLTracker.
18 A Year of NPB Tracker » NPB Tracker // Jun 15, 2009 at 4:38 pm
[...] Ted wrote back in 2007 was part of my motivation for starting the site, and I shared the story in a thread on EWC, which Ted then found and contacted me after reading. Getting to take part in that interview was [...]
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