Initially this was going to be a post about the fact that Ichiro was entering this year’s Home Run derby. Simon found an article reporting as much, but now that idea has been refuted. It’s too bad because it would have given me a reason to watch for more than five minutes. According to Simon’s piece Ichiro claims he could hit 40 home runs per year, but that it would drag his average down to .220. Funny thing is — I kind of believe Ichiro.

Obviously 2008 has been a disapointing season for Ichiro and the Mariners. At the time of writing Seattle is 36-58, 20 games out and in limbo as the team plays out the string and looks toward off-season hirings of a new GM and manager.

Last year I followed the Mariners fairly closely in the sense that they were my mid-afternoon West coast team of choice on MLB.com, but this year that’s not the case. The 2008 Mariners are an uninspiring bunch having sunk as many as 23 games under .500 in late June. There’s even been talk of the previously unspeakable — trading Ichiro. I won’t try to diagnose what the Mariners should do but the calls (by some) to trade Ichiro has me taking a closer look at what he’s done this season.

Through 94 games he’s essentially same as he ever was. Barring injury he’ll flirt with 750 plate appearances, 220 hits, 100 runs scored, 50 plus RBI. His BB/K rate is actually up a fair bit at 0.92, up from his career average of 0.73. He’s walking more, striking out about the same. He’s also on pace to make a run at his career best 56 steals.  His BABIP (batting average balls in play) is about 20 points under his career average, which suggests he’s a little unlucky on the balls he’s hitting, but nothing that would indicate anything dramatic going on.

But what’s different about Ichiro 2008 are his win probability numbers. His WPA (win probability added) stands at 0.17. In both 2006 and 2007 this number was up over 1.80. In 2005 Ichiro posted a 1.13, which is by far his career worst. In 2004 he had his career high of 3.54.

What does this tell us? Well, first off that Ichiro plays on a very bad team. This is no surprise. Ichiro is coming to bat in low weight situations — nobody on base, down by several runs. Can’t do much with nothing.

But even if you remove the game weight aspect his WPA/LI is a negative 0.07. Hmm. This puts a little more of the focus on Ichiro himself. It suggests that not only is Ichiro on a bad team, but he’s not doing much with the chances he is getting. Again, in 2006 and 2007 this number was 1.35 and 1.52. Even in 2005, on a Mariners team that lost 93 games, he managed a 0.49.

Does that mean it’s time to trade Ichiro? I tend to think Ichiro can be productive into his late 30s even into his early 40s. I say nay, but who knows what kind of GM the Mariners will ultimately end up with. The Mariners are clearly a team that’s hit rock bottom. I suppose anything is possible.