That’s the name of a recent piece on Royals Review, one of the best team blogs around. I’ve thought a lot about the Royals signing of Jose Guillen for some reason. On the surface it looks like the worst free agency signing of the offseason. Guillen will miss the first 15 games of the season because of his use of performance enhancing drugs, and, as the writer brings up — you have to think he’ll drop off if he isn’t on the juice anymore.
Plus, the Royals gave Guillen big money — $36MM over three-years. And he’s going to be 32 years old. What the heck is Dayton Moore thinking?
Still, you have to assume he has his reasons. Moore is not an idiot. In fact, this recent article by a Pirates team blog writer seemingly thinks Pittsburgh needs an overhaul fashioned after the one Moore has conducted in K.C. The Royals play in a tough division, but they aren’t a sure-fire last place team by any means.
Moore also made arguably the most controversial free agency signing of last winter in inking Gil Meche to a five-year $55MM deal. Of course, Meche was an All-star in 2007, and one year from now, once the dust clears from Johan Santana’s upcoming deal, Meche is going to look like a bargain.
So what gives with Guillen? Is there something here we aren’t seeing? This is a guy whose played for nine teams in 12 years. In fact, check out what new teammate Mark Tehan — who, I think it’s fair to say is the team leader of the Royals — said about Guillen upon meeting him for the first time:
“I have heard all the stories that he might be a tough teammate. I was gonna hold judgment until I met him. I got the opportunity to meet him when they announced him in Kansas City and talked to him for the better part of one night. For the most part he didn’t rub me the wrong way he seemed like a good guy.”
Doesn’t sound like they’ll be doing any sleepovers anytime soon, does it?
One thing I’ll say for Guillen is that he’s fairly consistent when he plays a full season, which he didn’t in 2006. I think the Royals can count on around a .350 OBP, and between 75-100 RBIs. Though he’s also likely to strikeout 20% of the time and his power is decent, but not great. He has a good arm, but finished 11th amongst right-fielders in the recent Outfield Arms 2007 Survey done by Jon Walsh.
You had probably hoped I’d come to some kind of conclusion here. I haven’t. I think you can make a case for this signing being as good or better than the signings of Aaron Rowand, Andruw Jones and even Fukudome, who is an injury risk, received a ton of money, and has never played in the U.S. However, I won’t be the one to make that case. I will say, if Guillen doesn’t pan out, if he drives in under 75, falls to the .333 OBP that both Bill James and Marcel are projecting, and is anything approaching a malcontent, it’ll start to undo some of the good work Moore has done thus far. If it works out in the way the Meche signing did I think we have to call Moore one of the better GMs in the league.
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