Here’s a fantasy baseball perspective I can get behind. This is Razzball, who I linked to earlier in the week, deconstructing the myth surrounding the taking of starting pitchers early in your draft. Razz argues that pitchers are usually as valuable commodities as hitters, using data drawn from both their own player rater and ESPN’s to make their case.

Seeing as not drafting pitchers early is a current I love going against, I suppose I’m at some risk in sharing this with the public. Especially since I have the No. 13 pick in our upcoming reader league. Jake Peavy at No. 13? I just might do it.

For those of you still with me after that outburst concerning a league — a fantasy baseball league no less — that just 19 other readers of this site are in, here’s the honey:

I dug into my 2007 draft sheet to do an unscientific test. Here were my top 10 starters going into last year’s draft along with their eventual finish among all players based on my 2007 Player Rater. Just to add impartiality, I’ll also add their ESPN Player Rater rank:
Name (2007 Razzball Rank, 2007 ESPN Rank)
Johan Santana (4, 4)
Jake Peavy (1, 2)
Roy Oswalt (59, 46)
Chris Carpenter (n/a)
Roy Halladay (60, 38)
Brandon Webb (7, 6)
Carlos Zambrano (69, 33)
Jeremy Bonderman (326, 180)
John Lackey (10, 9)
Ben Sheets (157, 114)
So out of my preseason top 10, 4 delivered 1st round value, 3 provided good value, one average player (Sheets), and two flops in Bonderman and Carpenter.
Let’s look at the top 10 hitters on my 2007 draftboard:
Alfonso Soriano (54, 71)
Alex Rodriguez (2, 1)
Jose Reyes (23, 30)
Ryan Howard (32, 40)
Carl Crawford (29, 54)
Chase Utley (50, 59)
Vladimir Guerrero (33, 57)
Miguel Cabrera (38, 44)
David Wright (12, 15)
Well, there’s definitely more consistency. No flops or average performances like Carpenter, Bonderman, and Sheets. But only one delivered 1st round value (A-Rod).
It does say something, though, about the predictability of top performing pitchers when 4 of the top 6 pitchers by year-end were in my preseason top 10 (other two being Sabathia and Beckett) where only one of the top 5 hitters was in my top 10 (after A-Rod, the next 4 rated hitters at year-end were Hanley Ramirez, Matt Holliday, Magglio Ordonez, and Jimmy Rollins).