I thought it would be fun to take a look ahead at possible Cy award winners using Cy Predictor, a running stat kept on ESPN created by Bill James and Rob Neyer. Please give me your picks in the comments section.

Before I begin a reminder of the formula:

((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2))

There’s also a victory bonus, adding 12 points in the event that the pitcher’s team wins its division. As we’ll find here this bonus will definitely come into play in deciding who wins the stat, erm, but more importantly how Cy voters tend to spill their seeds.

AL

If the season ended now and we slapped on the bonus points K-Rod would become the first AL reliever since Dennis Eckersley  in 1992 to win the Cy. As it stands now he’s actually behind Cliff Lee at 115.9. Lee’s had a nice first half and his FIP of 2.31 and his .298 BABIP indicates he isn’t a fluke. Should he manage to win 20-22 games on a 4th or 5th place team that loses 90 games it might be hard to deny him

……unless K-Rod breaks Bobby Thigpen’s single season saves record of 57. The voters would likely see this as the kind of outstanding achievement that merits the award. See how lame saves can be?

I wouldn’t give the guys that currently follow Lee and K-Rod — Roy Halladay (105.2), Mariano Rivera (100.5), and Jonathan Papelbon (100.3) much of a chance. Halladay is having a nice year on a below average team. His “falling” strikeout rate, as I called it at some point before the year, is back up over seven per nine. His walk rate has also fallen to 1.29 per nine. The Blue Jays are only a game under .500, but are likely sellers with A.J. Burnett. Plus Vernon Wells is hurt and we all know how devastating that is to the Jays. Oh wait this is the post-steroid era. Anyway, the Jays are going nowhere, which effectively ends Halladay’s chances.

As I said before, it might take breaking the saves record to give a reliever the award and neither Rivera or Papelbon will do this. Paps has also already blown four saves anyway. It’ll be fun if Rivera pitches just well enough to get some Yankee stadium nostalgia votes. I’m also wondering if Mike Mussina — oh for fuck’s sake. I don’t even want to type that.

I’m going to go with Ervin Santana. His team is going to win the division and he’ll take a shot at winning 20 games with 250 strikeouts. Currently he has 99.4 score. With a strong second half his ERA could fall to around 3.00 — and his overall career numbers in Sept./Oct. suggest this will happen.

Justin Duchscherer (98.4) and Joe Saunders (97.5) are right behind Santana in the current standings, but as much as I’m enjoying the fantasy seasons of both, I see them both having a weaker halves. Henny Youngman anybody? Thank you, thank you ladies and germs.

NL

Edinson Volquez (112.9) has a 4.01 ERA and a .252/.332 mini-slash against over his last seven starts. Like Saunders (whose ERA is 3.99 in the same span) I think we can expect something more like this from here out. That won’t be the case with Tim Lincecum who might caress the 200 K line sometime in early September. He’s 11-2, which is remarkable considering how difficult it is for teammate Matt Cain to win games for the same Giants. Like Lee in the AL it’s possible that if Lincecum wins 20 games on a subpar team that he could have an outside chance at taking home the prize. But I doubt it.

Last year’s runner up and 2006 winner Brandon Webb (109.1) is the likely favorite and my personal pick to win. He had a rough June, but his K rate is up for the fourth consecutive year and he’s already won 13 games, which would seemingly make him a lock for 20. With an FIP of 3.03 (ERA 3.23) he seems unlikely to regress. After playing .700 ball through April, the DBacks have cooled. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see the team heat up at the start of the 2nd half approach 90 wins.

I’m going to go outside ESPN’s Top 10 to throw Johan Santana (8-7) and Cole Hamels (9-6) into the mix here after Webb. Both have been solid, but their records aren’t likely grabbing the eyes of the voting sloths. Would anyone be surprised to see either rattle off 10-12 second half wins? The only thing different with Santana from last year to this is his walk rate, which at 2.49 is as high as it’s been since 2003. That might be explained by the slightly different strike zones in the AL and NL. That number should come down.  

One other pitcher I’ll mention with some hesitation is Kyle Lohse who is in 9th with a 90.7. How fitting would it be for Lohse, kicked to the curb in the off-season to be the only pitcher to win 20 games on a team no one expected jack from? I would hate this scenario, but I wouldn’t count it out. Fellow NL Centralers Ben Sheets (96) and Carlos Zambrano (92.1) are right there with Lohse. Both have better numbers, but say they each win 18-19 games and the Cardinals somehow win the division with Lohse winning 20. Even with an ERA around 3.20 and a low strikeout total Lohse would be the pick.

And then we can all go back to bitching about how arbitrary the the Cy Award is.