I’ve always loved stat projections. Maybe it’s the kid in me, the summers pouring over APBA cards in my childhood bedroom. Nary a friend in sight. Alone. Just me, my?dice and my numbers. The door shut. FM cassette player radio on. So alone.

But I digress. Point is, nowadays I get excited when I see the word Zips, PECOTA or, my personal favorite CHONE. I used both Zips and CHONE for fantasy baseball purposes last year, and it worked out real well, save for some post-season b.s. bonus awards system my Dad’s childhood friend Gerry has going that prevented our sentimental trans-pacific father/son combo from winning the league, despite having finished with the most points at season’s end.

But again, I digress. CHONE. I pronounce it with a hard CH as in rhymes with phone. I’m sure that’s not correct, as CHONE’S master is a huge Angels fan, as the title of his blog Anaheim Angels All the Way might indicate. Chone Figgins. His name is Sean Smith and sometimes Chone Smith.

But I like it better as CHone, a bit more teutonic. Like Hal from 2001 Space Odyssey. I imagine CHONE as a 60s style super-computer in Smith’s Maryland basement. Maybe something he bought from a junk sale at the Pentagon, threw on top of his Chevy station wagon and restored to make great baseball projections.

There are loads of articles with detailed comparisons of all the various projections, and CHONE always stacks up well against the others. I’ll point you to this one written by Sean himself analyzing the various pitching projections against his. You can also find outlines of the process itself?on his site.

As far as I know CHONE is ahead of the game in projecting the Japanese free agents that will likely be playing in MLB next year. Obviously fun for the purposes of this site. You might have noticed on our East Windup Breakdown of Kobayashi Masahide there was a CHONE projection for 2008.

I asked?Sean if he’d mind running projections for two players we?broke down earlier: Kuroda Hiroki and Fukumori Kazuo. He did and here are the results.

CHONE likes Kuroda, adding he thinks that in a park like PETCO the ERA could come down as low as 3.47. Nothing particularly striking here otherwise–less than a strikeout per inning, fairly good control.

If this projection holds true, and he ends up with a team like the Pads, or, very likely, the Mariners, I think Kuroda will win?between 10-15 games as a No. 4 starter. On a fairly good team (like the Mariners or Padres) he can win 15. I think that would make him just worth the $10-$12 million figure being thrown around now.

But that number keeps growing as we approach the Nov. 29 deadline Kuroda has supposedly set for making his decision about staying in Japan or not. It’s not inconceivable that Kuroda could end up getting more money than Fukudome Kosuke. I think a lot of fans in Japan will be in disbelief should that happen.

Fukumori on the other hand doesn’t project to be anything special. In CHONE’s (or were they Sean’s?) own words: “Looks like a run of the mill, end of the bullpen reliever.”

Indeed, although I still argue Fukumori, with good, natural movement on his pitches, could wind up being a bargain and a decent setup guy.

I’ll have more with CHONE in the coming days and weeks.