Over the past 24 hours I’ve been meditating on the fact that the next couple weeks are when baseball is at it’s  absolute lowest ebb. Patsball is peaking, basketball is getting into games that actually count and spring training is still a few weeks away (well, except here in Korea). My perception of this is also somewhat distorted because this site has been growing  during this time. Weather? I can’t be sure, but what I can say is that deep inside my winter spine I felt a little tinge of excitement for spring when I read this article.

Why? Because it’s actually about  the 2008 season. It’s not hot stove, it’s not necessairly fantasy-based (although, that’s always part of my sad prism), it’s about players who are going to break out in 2008 on the fieldas predicted by one of baseball’s foremost experts — Joel Sheehan.

And boy, does he deliver. He’s got some genuine surprises, no…shocks…on here. Let’s start with the big one:

David Wright might well have been the most valuable player in the National League last season; (Ryan) Zimmerman will be a better player than Wright in 2008.

That’s a pretty lofty statement, no? Not pulling any punches there.

Zimmerman’s raw stat lines have been held down by his home park, RFK Stadium, which just killed power, especially right-handed power. Zimmerman’s home/road splits do not reflect this gap—he’s slugged .501 at RFK in his career, .435 on the road, but a guiding principle of performance analysis is that an individual’s home/road splits, even over two years, do not mean that player isn’t being affected by his home park. We know what RFK did to run scoring and power, and moving to a new park should enable Zimmerman to convert some of his doubles to home runs.

Sheehan also likes Rickie Weeks, Dioner Navarro, Ervin Santana, Jason Kubel, and Melky Cabrera. He’s got a few other second-tier guys as well. Last week he penned a love-piece about Jeff Francoeur, who, I’m guessing would also qualify for this list.