In Jim Callis’s latest Ask BA, he’s asked the question of where Yu Darvish (whose next start will come Friday vs. the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks) might rank on BA’s Top 100 Prospects list.
Interesting idea to ponder. Here’s what Callis came up with.
Had Darvish signed with a major league club last offseason, I would have ranked him as the third-best prospect in baseball, behind Reds outfielder Jay Bruce and Rays third baseman Evan Longoria. I’d give him the nod as the best young player not under control to a U.S. team, ahead of Cuban infielder Yulieski Gourriel.
Sounds about right to me, but I will say, projecting what Darvish might do in the US is such a dicey proposition. Not only because it’s difficult enough to project what Japanese players will do in the US, but because the kind of money Darivish would command would raise the stakes to an unprecedented level. The Darvish question is the sort of situation that could save or lose a GM’s job.
Hopefully in the not too distant future we can take a look at Darvish through some windows like FIP, ERA+ and the like.
There was another great question in the Callis’s mailbag…
If you could only use prospects to fill the rosters for the upcoming World Baseball Classic, who would you pick for Team USA? Which country would be favored to win?
Callis’s answer:
Because the WBC will be staged in 2009, I eliminated players who are expected to lose their rookie/prospect status this season, such as Bruce and Longoria. Nevertheless, Team USA would have no trouble fielding a formidable all-prospect team. In fact, we may see some of these guys on the 2008 Olympic team.
Matt Wieters (Orioles) would start behind the plate, and the infield would consist of Lars Anderson (Red Sox) at first base, Adrian Cardenas (Phillies) at second, Ian Stewart (Rockies) at third and Reid Brignac (Rays) at shortstop. Age and experience do matter in international competitions, which is why I went with Brignac over Mike Moustakas (Royals). Defense does too, and as much as I love Moustakas’ bat, I don’t believe he’s a shortstop.
The outfield, from left to right, would be Travis Snider (Blue Jays), Jordan Schafer (Braves) and Austin Jackson (Yankees). Not ignoring his bust for using HGH, Schafer is still the best center-field option. Matt LaPorta (Brewers) would be the DH.
Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers), David Price (Rays) and Rick Porcello (Tigers) would be the top three starters in the rotation, and Jake McGee (Rays) and Wade Davis (Rays) to finish games. If you’re going to force me to use someone who likely will be a reliever in the majors to close games, I’ll take Justin Masterson (Red Sox).
12 responses so far ↓
1 salva // Apr 17, 2008 at 10:42 pm
I hope to see Darvish and Gourriel in MLB someday… I feel somewhat sad when think about some wonderful players that never go to MLB (like Omar Linares, from Cuba).
2 simon // Apr 18, 2008 at 1:54 am
This Darvish thing is getting out of hand. Americans getting interested in NPB is a good thing (NPB doesn’t help to promote itself to the US, how is its promotional efforts in Korea and Taiwan besides selling of broadcast rights?) but in the cases of future major leaguers like Uehara and Darvish, NPB is looked upon just as another source for foreign talent or a surprise/smart fantasy pick.
Darvish has about 2.5 years of service under his belt, and it doesn’t make any economic sense for the club to post him until after his 8th season (since he gains free agency after his 9th full season), unless they have some other economic incentive to post him earlier, though I can’t think of any that can be offered to the Fighters.
I suppose if Darvish “asks” to be posted, the Fighters can “honour” that request (clubs haven’t been known to do that, understandably. And yes a Fighters front office staff mentioned something offhand about honouring the request if he wishes, but that’s not an official stance, though things could very well change within the next 5 years). That is the only way for him to be posted before 2013.
3 Jackson // Apr 18, 2008 at 3:23 am
If Darvish went to MLB he wouldn’t be a prospect. He would be MLB ready star level talent.
4 yoshi // Apr 18, 2008 at 10:22 am
off topic once again. sorry. his article above lists his picks if he had to put a team together. one of his picks was a kind named travis snider from toronto. i watched this kid play in high school. he is from the same high school as another kid named lillibridge who was the braves AAA player of the year. snider is a player. i cant wait until he gets his chance. hard worker with a huge bat. he also mentored a kid that ive been looking at from the same high school. he is a korean american kid with the sweetest swing ive seen in a long time. too bad hes headed to cal berkeley. watch out for snider!!!
5 Christopher // Apr 18, 2008 at 10:57 am
Darvish has indicated he currently has
no interest in going to MLB. All speculation
is just that. Uehara on the other hand is
interested and will try to find a MLB club
at the end of the current season.
6 Mike // Apr 20, 2008 at 11:40 am
With the Yankees going after Sabathia and the Red Sox needing to fill a hole in the rotation with an aging Wakefield, I hope Theo considers Darvish when he is made available. Daisuke and Darvish back to back would solidify them as Japan’s number one MLB team.
7 SoxAcumen // Apr 20, 2008 at 12:00 pm
with the amount of money that is going to be offered to Darvish’s NPB team and the money he stands to earn, Darvish will be in the MLB within 2 years…
If I could go to Vegas and bet when Darvish will be over here in the States, I would 2 days after the WBC is over.
MLB spends money as if they own a printing press, even Darvish will cave and take the cash.
Why would NPB give up Darvish early? bc they stand to make $100 million from the posting. Far more money than keeping Darvish will earn them.
Plus remember if Darvish gets hurt, its all over.
So next year or year after expect Darvish in LA, Seattle, Boston, NYC, Chicago or KC, yes I said KC. They have a great rotation and Hillman has a relationship already.
8 Shinsano // Apr 20, 2008 at 12:43 pm
Good call SoxAcumen, I’m with you…right down to the Royals making a serious run.
I hadn’t considered the WBC idea. I’m not sure if he’d even need to delay for that. An Olympic gold in China might be more important to him.
9 John Brooks // Apr 20, 2008 at 1:06 pm
As I mentioned a while back in another Darvish post, we should get a better indication of what Darvish plans on doing after the 2008 season.
Though that said I’m sorry I can’t see the Royals being a viable option. The Royals might consider it due to the Hillman connection, but I find it hard for the Royals to be able to outbid the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Cubs, Mariners, or Angels.
10 Shinsano // Apr 20, 2008 at 1:40 pm
It would seem unlikely, but KC was one of the last two or three players in the Fukudome sweepstakes. They were after Kuroda as well.
11 John Brooks // Apr 20, 2008 at 11:50 pm
but KC was one of the last two or three players in the Fukudome sweepstakes. They were after Kuroda as well.
Yeah, that’s true they were some of the finalists in those deals, but both of them were also free agents. When it comes to the highest bidder, I have my doubts unless David Glass is ready to play with the big boys now and show the cash.
12 Tim // Apr 21, 2008 at 2:56 pm
That’s true John. With Darvish we’re talking about throwing down as much as $125mil between posting and contract. Hard to imagine the Royals doing that.
Hard to imagine anyone doing that.
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