There are only a couple really notable names moving from NPB to MLB this season, and with the help of some Chone projections from Sean Smith I detailed those in a post earlier in the week.
But at the time he asked if there were any other names I wanted projections for — you know, players that might be coming over in 2010, players that might post and even players who may never post. In honor of the day-after-Thanksgiving here are some 2009 Chone projections for NPB players not coming to play in MLB anytime soon.
Keep in mind these are rough ideas of what these players would do if they were to play in the states during the 2009 season, not what they’ll do if they come in 2010 or beyond.
The present I wanted last year that I don’t really want anymore…
Hitoki Iwase
I never blame foreign players who have no interest in playing in Major League Baseball. If it were me I’d want to compete against the best in the world, and I’d probably want the chance to make a bunch of money for when my body no longer allowed me to play baseball. Iwase was clearly conflicted on this in 2007 and opted to play one more year in Japan — ostensibly to play on the Olympic team since he’d just won a championship with Chunichi. Both he and the team were a disaster, and his 2008 season with the Dragons suggested a sharp decline.
If Iwase wanted either of the baseball-related goals I mentioned above, he blew it. As a top reliever in a weak class he would have likely commanded more money than the three high profile guys that did come over — I’d guess something like a 3-year/$5 or 6 million per deal.
Still, Chone likes Iwase a little. These numbers suggest a decent lefty out of the bullpen. Last we heard Iwase hadn’t signed a contract to stay in Japan. Hmm.
Last year’s Christmas gift that I wasn’t all that thrilled with and that’s still unopened on the shelf…
Yasuhiko Yabuta and Kazuo Fukumori
I never imagined big things for these two, but I didn’t expect them to spend the year in Omaha and Round Rock. I envisioned Fukumori being a solid setup man on a team going into the season with CJ Wilson as it’s closer. Meaning, I thought Fukumori might even get some save chances.
But he ended the year with four innings pitched and an ERA over 20. Down in Round Rock he cobbled together a 1-6 record with a 5.48 ERA and gave up 7 long balls in limited time. There’s really no reason to get excited about anything here. His 2009 option is guaranteed if he spent less than 30 days on the major or minor DL in 2008 (info from Cot’s). I believe that was under 30 days, so I suspect the Rangers will pay his $1.4 million salary and he’ll battle for a bullpen spot this spring.
Yabuta was slightly better, but is left with the same prognosis for 2009, getting one more shot in the bullpen. If he spends most of 2009 in Omaha the club won’t pick up his option for 2010. But the Royals are on the hook for $3 mill during 2009.
Chone sees more of the same from both, but Yabuta’s total numbers for 2008 weren’t terrible. Back of the bullpen for both.
The gift I’m inclined to want, but know I’d probably be better off without…
Marc Kroon
Kroon is like junk food, but he’s always intrigued me. He had a terrible early career in the majors, but then went to Japan and it’s come together for him. When I watch him on TV and I see him approaching triple digits on his fastball I think, “well, maybe…”, but he’s also capable of falling apart at any moment. But heck, there are a lot of closers like that.
Kroon isn’t going anywhere and he shouldn’t. He’s in his mid 30s and will likely experience a severe decline in the next few years. But he’s fun to watch. This is what he might do in MLB during 2009.
A nice gift that might show up under my tree at any time…
Kyuji Fujikawa
Fujikawa has made it clear he wants to play in MLB as early as last offseason, but Hanshin isn’t having any of it for the time being. I don’t see him enough to notice any big differences from 2007 to 2008, but his numbers weren’t as eye-popping as previous years and he was fairly bad during the Olympics.
If he regresses again 2009 I could envision Hanshin selling him off. Hopefully, it won’t turn into another Koji Uehara situation. Gulags can be a tough place to work if you mouth off to the wrong person.
Chone likes Fujikawa and his stupendous K/BB ratios. His fastball is a little straight and I’m not convinced he can be a closer in the majors. But there’s no doubt about it he’s a talent.
The gift I’d like but am unlikely to go buy it with my own money if it’s not given to me…
Hisashi Iwakuma
What an amazing year Iwakuma had. The 2008 Sawamura Award winner — 1.87 ERA, a WHIP under 1.00, just 3 HRs in over 200 innings, and a 20-4 record for a team that won just 65 games. Just the third MVP in Nippon Pro Baseball history from a 5th-place team. Like Cliff Lee plus a little more.
Nothing against Iwakuma, but I need to see him do it again. To have another comparable season that, while it’s couldn’t possibly be as good as his 2008, would at least give me some perspective. Iwakuma was fantastic with Kintetsu in 2004, but his Rakuten emergence has been a four-year program. Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to see him in MLB, but if he were posted for 2009 (in this little fantasyland I’ve concocted) his 2008 numbers would likely surpass his true talent. Chone, which takes his career numbers into account, seems to agree with me.
All I want for Christmas…
Yu Darvish
Another year, another 200 innings, another 15+ wins, another K/9 hovering around 10. This was the year Darvish became a household name in the MLB world, but, according to him he’s “not dreaming of the majors.”
But what else would he say in front of a bunch of fans? I’ll believe it when he’s 37 and talking about retiring. Until then I’ll be keeping the lights turned on and the ornaments on the tree.
But wait. Chone is skeptical of the 19 ft. high fences at Sapporo Dome and thinks that a MLB Darvish wouldn’t be the same as the Nippon Ham Fighters version.
Still, we’re talking about a 22-year-old. Unlike Junichi Tazawa he’s got a 4-year track record in a competitive league. I’ll take my chances. Maybe the idea here is to pretend we don’t want him in MLB so that he’ll start wondering why we don’t like him anymore and then arrive at our doorstep. It works in other courtships, right?
17 responses so far ↓
1 John Brooks // Nov 29, 2008 at 12:39 am
Interesting analysis on all of the players. I love to see what Darvish and Fujikawa could do in the majors in their prime years and not their 30+ years. That said the NPB teams should have the final say on what they do with their players in the league and not listen to the MLB fans who are gimme gimme now. They have a responsibility to put a winning team on the field too.
That said I’m conflicted on putting too much weight into Kroon’s numbers, though that said throughout his minor league career he was brought up as a starter. Also he’s in his decline years and is a possible injury risk. Unless it was a very cheap deal, I would probably not sign Kroon if he were available to a MLB team.
2 Jeff Hainey // Nov 29, 2008 at 2:52 pm
MLB has plenty of guys who can fit the bill as a closer, set up man or starter. On offense, there are a few guys on every team that can do the little things, play defense or knock some runs in. America lacks the true #1 hitter. The guy that takes the burdon of getting on base and taking the pitchers attention away from the hitter. Where are the Rickey Hendersons, the Ichiro Suzuki’s? Aren’t there true number one hitters in Japan that could come over?
3 Jackson // Nov 29, 2008 at 3:06 pm
Good work Aaron.
John: “That said the NPB teams should have the final say on what they do with their players in the league and not listen to the MLB fans who are gimme gimme now. They have a responsibility to put a winning team on the field too.”
I agree somewhat with your sentiment there John and I agree that MLB can have a predtatory tone, but at the same time do you really think that NPB clubs should be able to control their players destinies as players? What if they want to play for MLB? They are human beings that should be able to decide for themselves where they want to play.
As you and Aaron rightly pointed out before, its easy to point fingers at big bad MLB but at the same time if Japanese teams want to remain competitive then they have to make some structural changes that will allow them to keep their free agents.
We wouldn’t tell an insurance salesman or a financial analyst or teacher that they HAD TO stay for 9 years in a company before they could work somewhere else if they had offers to do so. I’m not sure why baseball is different.
4 Jackson // Nov 29, 2008 at 3:08 pm
Also, there’s no way Darvish just puts up middle of the road #’s like that. I don’t agree with Hal, er, Chone on that one.
5 Jackson // Nov 29, 2008 at 3:09 pm
Jeff
A lot of people think Aoki Norichika is that guy.
6 Deanna // Nov 29, 2008 at 4:42 pm
As the biggest closet Iwakuma fan on the planet I feel obliged to point out, in his defense, that he basically had to completely retool his mechanics after they outlawed the two-stop motion in NPB. That, coupled with elbow surgery, is what set him back for a few years.
There was a fascinating program about it on NHK a couple of weeks ago.
7 simon // Nov 29, 2008 at 6:57 pm
Not sure how much more “evil” the NPB 9 year service time is when compared to the MLB’s 5 years(?), though MLB’s stronger players association has secured arbitration eligible years before free agency, players are still bound to their club. And with NPB players often accruing service time from a younger age, the top players in NPB and MLB both become free agencies in their prime, their late 20’s.
The current NPB free agency situation really hurts marginal guys who could possibly get playing time on another team, but can’t accrue enough playing time to qualify until they’re in the decline phase of their careers (and even then the FA compensation often makes the move unrealistic, hence the very small number of NPB free agents every year.)
Are you suggesting complete free agency and abolition of the draft, moving in the direction of how global soccer player movements work?
8 Jackson // Nov 29, 2008 at 11:18 pm
Nah, I just think 9 is too long. 5-7 years seems more than fair.
9 John Brooks // Nov 29, 2008 at 11:37 pm
I agree somewhat with your sentiment there John and I agree that MLB can have a predtatory tone, but at the same time do you really think that NPB clubs should be able to control their players destinies as players? What if they want to play for MLB? They are human beings that should be able to decide for themselves where they want to play.
I agree with you that NPB teams shouldn’t be able to control player’s destiny. Though the point I was making was about player’s under contract. Just like I think a MLB player under contract shouldn’t be allowed to go to NPB unless his team agree’s to it, now another thing I believe is that other MLB teams shouldn’t be allowed to claim him off waivers to prevent him from going to NPB, but alas that’s another story for another day.
As for the archaic free agent rules in NPB, you are correct in saying they are slave like Jackson. Something like 5 years needs to be put into motion. The fear would be players would depart in exodus to MLB, but I’m not sure I buy it. And even then it then force the league and teams to come together and fix their archaic draft system and lackluster minor league or become irrevelant. Like I’ve said before the current system is unsatisifactory in developing players to replace though that go to MLB. In MLB, a player departs via free agency a lot of times there’s a new guy waiting in the minors. Also, there’s little room for developing catchers and pitchers in the NPB minors. You have to also extend the minor league system to better develop players.
Also, regarding free agency I also fullheartedly agree that the current free agent system is bad in that it doesn’t allow players to depart in their prime of their career, but instead usually in their 28-29 years. Another thing that Simon brought up was arbitration there’s no such thing in NPB either because the player’s assocation has no backbone.
So what am I saying Jackson? I’m only saying the teams should have control of the player while under contract, like they do in MLB. But I agree that archaic free agent rules need changed now and they need to include and apply to players now playing in the league.
10 John Brooks // Nov 29, 2008 at 11:41 pm
Also to clarify further, I was also talking about the tone of MLB fans who only scream “gimme gimme”, as for the reason that NPB only exists as a farm league for MLB. That said I agree with the points you made Jackson. I guess I could have made it clearer, that I do not support the free agent system in NPB.
11 Jackson // Nov 30, 2008 at 12:21 am
No, fair enough. I probably read too much into what you were saying, so, sorry about that.
I’m probably the first to admit at times that I fall into that ‘gimme gimme’ way of thinking with MLB teams, but its beecause I want to see these players compete on the biggest stage. For better or worse, MLB is still the proving ground. Not to say that NPB is that far behind by any stretch.
I guess for those of us that live in Asia and are able to follow the pro leagues here, it’s easier for us to see the value in players remaining in the KBO, NPB, or (cough) CPBL. OK, the first two. But for most American fans who have never seen a Japanese game, it’s probably a natural reaction to say “hey, I hope this guy comes over to the states”.
I like to see the Japanese players go to the states because, frankly, they do well and it increases the level of respect international baseball can command. Also, its just interesting to see how their games translate.
thanks for the comments…
12 simon // Nov 30, 2008 at 7:26 am
What’s the free agency service time requirements for the KBO and CPBL, btw? I expect these leagues to be more similar in structure with the NPB than the MLB, in that high top school graduates playing with the top team in his first pro year is not uncommon, unlike in the MLB.
13 John Brooks // Nov 30, 2008 at 8:36 am
What’s the free agency service time requirements for the KBO and CPBL, btw?
From the KBO website:
1.) FA players should have minimum 7- year experience in Korean Baseall League
2.) Players who have 7- year experience in Korean Baseall League will be able to play foreign league
3.) Players who have 9-year experience in Korean Baseall League will be entitled to declare himself a free agent and shall have the right to sign with any club worldwide including any KBO club.
I can’t seem to find any information about CPBL. That said it seems the rules in KBO are a little less lenient than those of NPB, but not in all that great either and like you mention mostly align with NPB in keeping the player locked into the system well past his prime years.
I think CPBL and KBO also be better for less leinent free agent rules. It also force them to answer the questions that I mentioned about NPB. In CPBL there’s a lackluster even more uncoordinated minor league system than NPB’s. That said if CPBL doesn’t eliminate the corruption that plagues it all of the changes in the world isn’t going to fix it.
I don’t even know about KBO and if they even have a farm system, maybe someone here can fill me in about the development in KBO.
14 John Brooks // Nov 30, 2008 at 8:49 am
I’m probably the first to admit at times that I fall into that ‘gimme gimme’ way of thinking with MLB teams, but its beecause I want to see these players compete on the biggest stage. For better or worse, MLB is still the proving ground. Not to say that NPB is that far behind by any stretch.
Yeah I can understand that NPB players would want to test themselves on the biggest stage in the world in MLB and the current free agent system in NPB does them no justice on allowing them to compete in MLB in their prime years, but instead unless there posted via the posting system they don’t arrive in MLB until their age 28-29 seasons.
I like to see the Japanese players go to the states because, frankly, they do well and it increases the level of respect international baseball can command. Also, its just interesting to see how their games translate.
I also love to see Japanese players go to the majors for the reasons you listed. They play well, it increases the respect Japan gets on the international stage, its interesting to see how they translate to the majors, and my favorite is the outstanding work ethic.
15 Christopher Amano-Langtree // Nov 30, 2008 at 1:12 pm
On an earlier point I don’t think many MLB clubs would go for the typical Japanese No.1 batter. A small fast guy with not so much power.
16 simon // Nov 30, 2008 at 2:57 pm
2.) Players who have 7- year experience in Korean Baseall League will be able to play foreign league
3.) Players who have 9-year experience in Korean Baseall League will be entitled to declare himself a free agent and shall have the right to sign with any club worldwide including any KBO club.
That’s interesting, it’s the opposite approach from the NPB free agency where domestic moves now require 8 years service whereas worldwide moves still require 9 years.
17 Shinsano // Nov 30, 2008 at 8:40 pm
Hi everyone. Nice discussion(s) going here. I’ve been out of town all weekend.
First off I wish I could see the documentary Deanna mentioned. That’s sounds really interesting and I’d never heard that about Iwakuma.
On the NPB/KBO/CPBL free agency status ideas…I think I’ve made my position on this pretty clear from the beginning. Simon brought up the point that the NPB’s service time of 9 years isn’t that different from MLB’s 5 years. I think he has a point, because of the fact that Asian players often start playing pro baseball when they’re 18 or 19 (although in Korea they lose 2.5 years because of military service). And fact of the matter is, most players don’t start that early and by the time their nine years are up they’re 32, which isn’t really the ideal age to start a career in MLB. And I don’t think many MLB teams would attempt to hold a player to the 5-year rule if they wanted to seek a better situation in Japan or Korea. It would depend on the player’s value to the team that owned his rights.
Of course comparing the two is like apples and oranges. I just wanted to acknowledge I thought Simon was right on the one point.
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