The Junichi Tazawa saga finally ended this week and first and foremost I’d like to wish him the best. He’s a trailblazer in a sense and I give the Red Sox credit for investing heavily in Japanese and Asian baseball. They’re going to sell a lot of hats, and official MLB expansion into Japan and/or Asia isn’t as far away as people probably think. This signing is another step toward that.
The details on Tawaza’s contract haven’t been released, but the deal is believed to be somewhere in the 3-year/$3-6 million range. If he’s smart with his money he’s set for life, so that if things don’t work out in MLB he can return to Japan, serve out his sentence in the gulag, and possibly still make some money playing baseball toward the end of his career.
Hopefully that won’t happen. Keith Law from ESPN has a post about Tawaza on his blog, saying that “Signing Tazawa was a no-brainer for the Red Sox,” and believes Tawaza will start in Double-A. He thinks Tawaza would have been taken in the latter third of the first round. With all due respect to Law, I don’t know where he’s coming up with this. To my knowledge he’s seen the same YouTube clips the rest of us have. If you look at the Tawaza signing from a marketing perspective, and I think that has at least something to do with the signing, it’s quite possible his talent level is much lower than a late first round pick.
I don’t scout the industrial league in Japan, so I won’t try and tell you what the talent level is. Is it Double-A talent? Uh, no. People are fond of saying the NPB was Triple-A talent and is now more like AAAA. I’d say the Korean league is verging on Triple-A at this point. At any rate, no one in their right mind would say the Japanese industrial league is Double-A level talent. Law isn’t saying this directly either, but anyone who thinks Tawaza is ready for Double-A could be in for a big surprise. There are 4,000 industrial league teams. It’s a semi-pro league, folks. If we’re going to project Tawaza in the bigs we’d better stick to true talent, not the level of competition he’s played against.
The Rangers offered 4 years and $7million based on a couple of looks. The Mariners, who have a full time scout living and working in Japan, who has probably been following Tawaza for more than a year, offered 3 years and $4.5 million. A number of teams with people here didn’t make an offer. I’m just throwing these ideas (all from NPB Tracker, of course) out and not commenting. Draw your own conclusions.
I might sound like I’m ranting. I don’t mean to be. The truth of the matter is I get defensive when people who don’t live/write/scout here tell the world about players here and then that becomes the standard for future reference. That’s my competitive advantage, dig? I want teams/publishers to put more people here. Considering how much money and time is at stake they might want to start thinking about it.
In opposition to Tawaza’s signing comes that of Yu Darvish who signed a new deal that at $2.7 million, is possibly worth less than Junichi’s. Let me start by saying that I’d never blame a player for taking less money if it means their life is more comfortable. The argument against baseball players making a lot of money is pretty much dead and gone, but the fact of the matter is the difference between $1 million and $10 million isn’t that great if you have a brain and don’t spend your money like your life is a music video.
That Darvish, who is without question the premier pitcher in the NPB, who would command a higher posting fee than Dice-K did, and would at minimum get a contract of $15 million per year, is willing to have happily played in Japan during 2008 for what Kevin Mench will get there in 2009 is — um, striking.
Again, I don’t want to criticize Darvish for the financial end of this because who knows what makes him happy. From a competitive angle, as someone who at some point must have admired the best baseball pitchers in the world, it makes absolutely zero sense. It can’t be the nationhood or bloodlines, because he’s half-Japanese.
He might just think it’s a better place to live and work and that’s fine too, but I’ll never completely come to terms with it. I still say he goes somewhere here along the line.
9 responses so far ↓
1 Patrick // Dec 2, 2008 at 12:18 pm
One of my baseball pet peeves is the generalizations that people make about the quality levels in the Asian leagues. I find it to be an oversimplification, and probably more reflective of the quality level of the import players in those leagues. There are MLB-caliber players in Japan (Darvish, Aoki, et al) and I would assume in Korea to (you would know better than I). At the end of NPB benches, there are guys that would struggle to make a AAA roster.
I think the industrial leagues are probably the same — you’ll have some decent players in the higher ranks but some very amateur guys in the lower ranks. It will be an adjustment for Tazawa to face guys that can hit his best stuff on a regular basis though. Seems like it’s been a while since we’ve seen an industrial leaguer come in and make an impact at the NPB level though… but that’s a post for another day (hint).
As for Darvish making $15m and commanding a posting fee higher than $51m, two things to keep in mind:
1. Even MLB players are indentured servants for six years. Tim Lincecum won’t make $15m next year, though he’ll probably approach that figure once he has 4 years under his belt like Darvish does. And yeah, it’s nuts that Kevin Mench should be in the same ballpark as him, or that Adam Eaton is making $10m/year.
2. How many MLB teams can afford to pay $50M+ to negotiate with a guy? Boston & New York. Maybe LA,
The other thing about Darvish is that he’s said in the past that, being half-Japanese, he used baseball in school to fit in with the Japanese kids around him. Ethnicity is complex in this case, but I do agree that eventually he’ll want to test himself at the MLB level.
2 John Brooks // Dec 3, 2008 at 12:47 am
Law isn’t saying this directly either, but anyone who thinks Tawaza is ready for Double-A could be in for a big surprise. There are 4,000 industrial league teams. It’s a semi-pro league, folks. If we’re going to project Tawaza in the bigs we’d better stick to true talent, not the level of competition he’s played against.
I’m not saying I agree with the statement that the industrial league’s are AA quality, but it looks like he will start in AA Portland if I had to take a guess. Now the transistion to the MLB minors from the industrial leagues of Japan are a big jump and we’ll see how he adjusts soon enough.
Also returning to the point its common practice for a MLB fan or for the American press to report that a young Japanese talent is coming to MLB so therefore he must be a first round talent and the naive who don’t have a clue will believe the so-called MLB experts they watch despite the opinions of those who are more qualified to speak on those. Putting American press individuals on the ground in Japan/Korea/Taiwan would go towards helping the miscomings of their reporting, but I’m afraid it wouldn’t change much until they put some research into their reporting, in which they do very little of.
Despite the fact its hard to judge what Tazawa will do in the minors(AA if I had to guess and or in the majors). I still think down the line Tazawa will turn into a Shigetoshi Hasegawa type player which is still a very good return on their deal and would help their pen.
A number of teams with people here didn’t make an offer.
There was a lot of teams who didn’t want to make a offer for Tazawa because of the so-called gentleman’s agreement, i.e Brian Cashman. People like Cashman were trying to please teams like Yomiuri that they have a working agreement with. There were other teams out there like that, but the Yankees were the most vocal about not signing Tazawa for fearing of angering NPB.
Even MLB players are indentured servants for six years. Tim Lincecum won’t make $15m next year, though he’ll probably approach that figure once he has 4 years under his belt like Darvish does
Yeah, but unline NPB, the MLBPA has a backbone and there’s arbitration. Also there’s the possibility that the SF Giants try to buy out his free agent years with a long term deal something that you won’t see in NPB or at least I haven’t see a NPB team try to buy out free agent years because by the time the player is 28-29 and by that time its now or never if they want to test the market for a big pay day. There’s no denying it, NPB needs to change the free agent system to more represent the one in MLB.
Regarding salary arbitration in NPB, there’s no such process because the player’s association in Japan has no backbone and the ownership in NPB won’t go for it. If NPB were to institute arbitration and have a neutral arbitrator they might go further into convincing talent to stay in Japan. And even then as I’ve ranted here and many other places, even if that fails, NPB should start now by fixing the draft and lackluster minor league system.
How many MLB teams can afford to pay $50M+ to negotiate with a guy? Boston & New York. Maybe LA
For the most part I agree, though I would add the Cubs to that equation too.
3 Jared // Dec 3, 2008 at 1:19 am
I’m a little surprised they are starting him off in double-a as well. High-A to Double-A is generally considered to be the biggest step up when climbing the organizational ladder. I think it would be beneficial to start him in Salem (High-A) for at least 4-5 starts. Also, living in Portland, ME the weather is pretty horrible for baseball in April…in 2007 the Seadogs had about 12 games cancelled due to snow. I’m not sure how much he has pitched outside and in weather in the 30’s/40’s but that combined with making a pretty big jump and with a lot of eyeballs on him I think a few starts in the warmer confines of Salem would be good for his confidence. I’m not for coddling players generally but there is a little too much of the unknown here.
4 Gerry // Dec 3, 2008 at 10:07 am
Jared, as usual you make good sense; in this case about Juni Tazawa’s starting point. If the Sox have any hope of even a September 1 callup, he needs to gain as much experience against peers as time will allow, which will be hard to guarantee anywhere north of DC. Salem would gain him a half-dozen games in relatively good weather while Portland is still chipping ice off windshields and home plate. If he does well in Salem, the natural progression is to a fully-thawed and Spring-beautiful Portland a month or so later. If not ready for Portland by then, he avoids the shame of being moved down to Salem. That is not coddling, that is giving someone a fair shake, protecting an investment, and insuring a successful transition.
5 SoxAcumen // Dec 3, 2008 at 12:22 pm
Darvish is a weird situation. Most athletes want to play against the best all the time. I cannot remember any athlete not taking the money to play in the best leagues. Hockey players have come from Europe just like Bball players.
Makes very little sense to me. However, if I can float an opinion, he might simply be using PR to get what he ultimately wants, the most money and to pick his team in the MLB.
With the current posting system Darvish is hurt by not being able to choose which team he wants to play for and his posting fee will be considered in his contract.
How much would Dice-K demand if there was no posting and he could deal with the team as a FA? 15 million a year? 18?
Maybe Darvish is waiting for the inevitable changes to the NPB v. MLB situation.
Or he could be just young and really likes being the big fish in the small pond.
I am very interested in his stuff v. MLB hitters like Pujols, Big Papi, A-Rod.
6 Shinsano // Dec 3, 2008 at 9:30 pm
I like Jared’s idea as well. Start him in a low-pressure/warmer weather situation. Let’s not overlook the huge cultural adjustment that all Japanese players have to face in moving to America…I think that’s what got in Fukudome’s head during the latter half of 2008 and what got into Dice-K’s in 2007. Tawaza isn’t coming over with the big $$ contract that the other two arrived with, but he is coming over with the scrutiny. Actually, the more I think about it the less sense starting him in Double A makes. But that idea isn’t coming from the Red Sox, it’s coming from Keith Law. The team may be thinking something totally different.
SoxAcumen: I think your right on…around 15 million a year. But his overall fee was higher because he was young. Darvish would be even younger. Heck, he’s Tawaza’s age and he’s already won a title and Japan’s version of the Cy.
7 simon // Dec 4, 2008 at 1:13 am
Darvish has nothing to gain yet from expressing MLB desires. Though he went out of his way to mention that he wanted to play out his career in Japan and win 200 games (which is an automatic entry into the Hall of Fame-ish Meikyukai).
8 Kiyoshi // Dec 4, 2008 at 1:38 am
Many people mistakenly have tried to equate Asian baseball, particularly Japanese NPB baseball to comparable MLB using a “ML, AAA, AA, A…” scale.
As Hideki Matsui indicated that it is like comparing “apples to oranges”.
The difference between NPB and MLB is team depth. The Japanese starting lineup on most teams is major league caliber. The second string bench is where the disparity is evident.
9 SoxAcumen // Dec 4, 2008 at 7:32 am
Shinsano: Oh I believe Darvish will break the bank if he came to MLB. He will get A-Rod/Teixeira money. The guy just has too much up-side in so many areas, not just baseball talent, he is worth 2o million/year easy. Dude is the Japanese/baseball version of David Beckham. US celeb rags and TV will be all over him. I heard he has a singer girlfriend or something like that.
The posting situation is in need of changing and I think both the NPB and MLB want to set the rules they can both agree on. Right now, the blind postings just do not work.
Darvish will be a very expensive property whenever he decides to come over, if he ever does.
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