The following is a comment I posted on Baseball Think Factory Earlier today, regarding the Selig in China article I linked to just prior. I’m curious what you guys think of this. By the time I saw this on BBTF I think it was a little old (my comment is #40). You can also check that for further discussion.
Now, at the risk of quoting myself:
Baseball won’t happen organically in China, but how soon it happens will depend exactly on how quickly a player breaks through and becomes a star in the U.S. As of this moment there’s no Yao Ming of baseball, but it’s a big country and there’s nothing to say there isn’t some 6 ft. 6 kid in rural China who could throw a 94 mph fastball if someone handed him a baseball. That kid could be playing in the minors in America by this time next year and starting for a major league team in two or three years. If that happens -boom- suddenly 300 million Chinese people are tuning into every one of his starts and baseball is immensely popular in China. Even if he’s playing it Pittsburgh.
If there’s no version of Yao Ming in baseball it’ll take longer. But baseball is a sport of the future in China and other parts of the world. It just arrived at the party later than basketball, and has been handicapped by fairly recent U.S. hegemony. Soccer is not the sport of the future. The World Cup is popular, and national soccer leagues are popular in the countries from which they originate, but only the British Premier League has far reaching popularity worldwide. It has already peaked.
Basketball is already popular worldwide, but I’d argue its also nearly reached its peak. Baseball is a better game in general and has more potential cross-culturally. It can be slow and methodical like soccer and it can be fast-paced and exciting like basketball.
The NFL? Lets not get silly.
7 responses so far ↓
1 Joel // Mar 17, 2008 at 4:22 pm
I more or less agree with you. I might argue that it’s a little more complicated than just finding the next Yao or Yi, and I think you have to consider the expense of playing baseball…equipment and so on. That’s likely a big part of the problem in getting baseball to catch on in China.
Also, soccer is wildly popular worldwide. Sure the English PL is the biggest, but the Italian and German leagues are also big outside of Italy and Germany.
2 Simon Currie // Mar 17, 2008 at 6:45 pm
Spanish league is big too.
Anyways, poor kids in Latin America manage to enjoy baseball even without proper equipment, and many even go onto successful professional careers. But I guess Latin American countries have a baseball culture and background that’s missing from many upcoming nations that need proper equipment and international prodding if they are to catch onto this sport.
Then again, I’m not sure if having a star player would be enough. LA Kings star Anze Kopitar only attracts nominal media attention in his home country of Slovenia, a non-traditional hockey country. And goalie Fukufuji debut with the same Kings as the first Japanese player in the NHL drew only nominal media attention here. Yuta Tabuse’s short stay in the NBA attracted more attention but that’s because basketball is more popular than hockey on all levels in Japan, I think a broadcaster even got in on the act by broadcasting live games. But Tabuse didn’t last in the NBA, and NBA and basketball faded back into the background. Maybe a Japanese star player in the NBA would be enough to push basketball over the edge as a major sport (much like Yao and basketball and NBA in China). But NBA had been investing in basketball in China for 20 years and have a much bigger presence there than the MLB-led Dodgers, so I don’t think baseball in China is at where basketball was on the dawn on Yao.
3 Swi // Mar 17, 2008 at 10:32 pm
Boy, comparing a bonafide Chinese MLB star to a Japanese hockey player and a basketball player? I don’t know about that one.
I don’t know the specifics but I think baseball has been in China for a while doing the same kind of grass roots organizing that basketball has. I too think it’s a matter of finding the right player. The guy that will make people tune in. More baseball in China in general will increase that chance but I think once it happens baseball in China will happen in earnest.
4 westbaystars // Mar 17, 2008 at 10:44 pm
Baseball was introduced to China before Japan. It played a crucial role in the Peoples’ Revolution. It was then killed off by the Cultural Revolution. The history of baseball in Asia is a very interesting subject, and one that the MLB plays less of a role in than it acknowledges.
Baseball Without Borders is a great book covering baseball outside of North America. The first section is about Asia, and I wish Selig and others who keep blabbering on about the potential 1.3 trillion person market would give it a read.
5 Simon Currie // Mar 17, 2008 at 10:54 pm
The fact that the Cultural Revolution completely killed off baseball in China meant that the sport had to restart from scratch after Mao. Otherwise, we probably would be seeing more Chinese players in the MLB right now than the other Asian nations combined. Or maybe even a Chinese major leagues! (Ah parallel worlds…) But that’s not how history turned out, so we have China as a potentially massive untapped market, but not so simple once you scratch below the surface.
6 Shinsano // Mar 18, 2008 at 1:56 pm
I think you guys are right on with the Cultural Revolution idea. I had thought that at one point but neglected to write it.
Westbay-san, When I first read your comment I thought you were suggesting the MLB pretends that expanding into China is a brand new idea. But that’s not what you meant. Still, I think the tidbit about the Dodger stadium built in 1986, is interesting. Clearly MLB has tried and has been trying to break into China. But it would make sense for them to reinvent the idea every time.
I still say if a Chinese kid breaks through it’ll be instantly popular. When I say “breaks through” I mean be above marginal. Wang is above average. Park was. Nomo was. Like that.
7 Gary Garland // Mar 21, 2008 at 3:34 am
I’ve said this before, but I think baseball in China could hinge on its future in the olympics. With a command economy, the Chinese politburo are only interested in using sport for propaganda value and baseball there really won’t have any unless it has a worldwide platform such as the olympic games. .
Indeed, one big reason the Chinese allowed Yao to go to the NBA was to help develop him as a player and further their olympic fortunes and, with that, its propaganda goals. If baseball is permanently excised from the games menu, the Chinese authorities may see no reason to allow it to continue.
Basketball is a worldwide sport now, but it was played in europe professionally long before you started seeing the Yugoslavian players coming into the league. Baseball does’t really have that pedigree and its lack of presence in the olympics is one big reason, along with the predominance of soccer.
Therefore, by not allowing MLB players to compete in the games, MLB may have killed off the sport in China, a market it would badly love to tap, yet another untended consequence brought about by the actions of the Selig junta.
As for the WBC, it isn’t the olympics and never will be. The Chinese will send a team to it to fly the flag and help its player development, but only as long as it appears that baseball may return to the olympics.
I hope I’m wrong about all this, though.
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